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运用数学模型估算人畜共患内脏利什曼病的最优控制。

Estimating the optimal control of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis by the use of a mathematical model.

作者信息

Ribas Laila Massad, Zaher Vera Lucia, Shimozako Helio Junji, Massad Eduardo

机构信息

School of Medicine, University of São Paulo and LIM 01-HCFMUSP, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.

出版信息

ScientificWorldJournal. 2013 Aug 5;2013:810380. doi: 10.1155/2013/810380. eCollection 2013.

Abstract

We argue that the strategy of culling infected dogs is not the most efficient way to control zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) and that, in the presence of alternative control strategies with better potential results, official programs of compulsory culling adopted by some countries are inefficient and unethical. We base our arguments on a mathematical model for the study of control strategies against ZVL, which allows the comparison of the efficacies of 5, alternative strategies. We demonstrate that the culling program, previously questioned on both theoretical and practical grounds is the less effective control strategy. In addition, we show that vector control and the use of insecticide-impregnated dog collars are, by far, more efficient at reducing the prevalence of ZVL in humans.

摘要

我们认为,扑杀感染犬只的策略并非控制人畜共患内脏利什曼病(ZVL)的最有效方法,而且在存在更具潜在成效的替代控制策略的情况下,一些国家采用的官方强制扑杀计划既低效又不道德。我们的观点基于一个用于研究ZVL控制策略的数学模型,该模型能够比较5种替代策略的成效。我们证明,此前在理论和实践层面均受到质疑的扑杀计划是效果最差的控制策略。此外,我们还表明,病媒控制以及使用浸有杀虫剂的犬项圈,在降低人类ZVL患病率方面要有效得多。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/95a0/3748747/c0c256c3fba4/TSWJ2013-810380.001.jpg

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