Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel), Department of Preventive Veterinary, Zoonosis Control Center of UFPel, Capão do Leão, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
Municipal Department of Health of Belo Horizonte, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
Parasit Vectors. 2018 Jun 28;11(1):372. doi: 10.1186/s13071-018-2877-6.
Visceral leishmaniasis is a serious public health problem in Brazil, and control of this disease constitutes a major challenge. The purpose of this study was to assess the existing spatial and temporal relationships between cases of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CanL) and human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) recorded in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, from 2006 to 2013.
Data provided by the Belo Horizonte Health Services regarding the disease control routine were analyzed in order to perform a retrospective observational and ecological study. Information regarding the incidence rate of HVL and canine seroprevalence was examined in relation to control actions performed atthe 148 coverage areas of healthcare centers for the period between 2006 and 2013. A time series analysis was performed using the Gretl 1.9.12 software followed by the assessment of the existing increasing or declining trend and seasonality in the occurrence of CanL and HVL. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were adjusted, intervention analysis was performed, vector autoregressive models were developed, and Granger causality was used for testing temporal relationships between variables. The hot spot analysis tool was used for cluster identification through Getis-OrdGi statistics. The ArcGis for desktop 10.2.1 software was used for spatial analysis.
We identified 866 HVL cases in Belo Horizonte between 2006 and 2013. The mean proportion of canine seroprevalence (PCP) was 7.31% and the mean proportion of monitored hosts (PMH) was 6.73%.HVL and PCP showed a decreasing trend, while PMH increased over time (P<0.05). Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Granger analysis showed a temporal relation between CanL and HVL cases. Maps illustrating the spatial distribution of cases and obituaries of HVL and CanL cases also showed an apparent association between the occurrence of leishmaniasis in humans, and data about canine cases recorded in the previous years.
Cases of HVL were preceded by PMH and PCP cases. Similar results were observed for intraspecific cases (i.e. between PCP and other canine cases and between HVL and other HVL cases), which indicated the existence of favorable environmental conditions for the transmission and spread of L. infantum in Belo Horizonte.
内脏利什曼病是巴西严重的公共卫生问题，该病的控制是一个重大挑战。本研究的目的是评估 2006 年至 2013 年贝洛奥里藏特记录的犬内脏利什曼病（CanL）和人类内脏利什曼病（HVL）之间的现有时空关系。
分析贝洛奥里藏特卫生服务局提供的有关疾病控制常规的数据，以进行回顾性观察和生态学研究。检查 2006 年至 2013 年期间，148 个医疗保健中心覆盖区域内 HVL 和犬血清阳性率的发病率信息与控制措施之间的关系。使用 Gretl 1.9.12 软件进行时间序列分析，然后评估 CanL 和 HVL 发生的现有上升或下降趋势和季节性。调整自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型，进行干预分析，开发向量自回归模型，并使用格兰杰因果关系检验变量之间的时间关系。使用 Getis-OrdGi 统计量的热点分析工具进行聚类识别。使用 ArcGis for desktop 10.2.1 软件进行空间分析。
2006 年至 2013 年期间，我们在贝洛奥里藏特发现了 866 例 HVL 病例。犬血清阳性率（PCP）的平均比例为 7.31%，监测宿主（PMH）的平均比例为 6.73%。HVL 和 PCP 呈下降趋势，而 PMH 随时间增加（P<0.05）。向量自回归（VAR）和格兰杰分析表明 CanL 和 HVL 病例之间存在时间关系。病例和 HVL 与 CanL 病例死亡报告的空间分布图也表明了人类利什曼病发生与前几年记录的犬病例数据之间存在明显关联。
HVL 病例先于 PMH 和 PCP 病例发生。同种病例（即 PCP 与其他犬病例之间以及 HVL 与其他 HVL 病例之间）的结果相似，这表明在贝洛奥里藏特，存在有利于利什曼原虫传播和扩散的环境条件。
