López-Carr David, Davis Jason, Jankowska Marta, Grant Laura, López-Carr Anna Carla, Clark Matthew
Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Human-Environment Dynamics Lab, 4836 Ellison Hall UC Santa Barbara (UCSB)Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060.
Ecol Modell. 2012 Mar 24;229:64-75. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.08.020.
The relative role of space and place has long been debated in geography. Yet modeling efforts applied to coupled human-natural systems seemingly favor models assuming continuous spatial relationships. We examine the relative importance of placebased hierarchical versus spatial clustering influences in tropical land use/cover change (LUCC). Guatemala was chosen as our study site given its high rural population growth and deforestation in recent decades. We test predictors of 2009 forest cover and forest cover change from 2001-2009 across Guatemala's 331 municipalities and 22 departments using spatial and multi-level statistical models. Our results indicate the emergence of several socio-economic predictors of LUCC regardless of model choice. Hierarchical model results suggest that significant differences exist at the municipal and departmental levels but largely maintain the magnitude and direction of single-level model coefficient estimates. They are also intervention-relevant since policies tend to be applicable to distinct political units rather than to continuous space. Spatial models complement hierarchical approaches by indicating and to what magnitude significant negative and positive clustering associations emerge. Appreciating the comparative advantages and limitations of spatial and nested models enhances a holistic approach to geographical analysis of tropical LUCC and human-environment interactions.
空间和地点的相对作用在地理学中一直存在争议。然而，应用于人类与自然耦合系统的建模工作似乎更倾向于假设连续空间关系的模型。我们研究了基于地点的层次结构与空间聚类影响在热带土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）中的相对重要性。鉴于危地马拉近几十年来农村人口的高增长和森林砍伐，我们选择该国作为研究地点。我们使用空间和多层次统计模型，对危地马拉331个市镇和22个省2009年的森林覆盖情况以及2001 - 2009年期间的森林覆盖变化的预测因素进行了测试。我们的结果表明，无论模型选择如何，都出现了几个LUCC的社会经济预测因素。层次模型结果表明，市镇和省级层面存在显著差异，但在很大程度上保持了单层次模型系数估计的大小和方向。这些结果与干预也相关，因为政策往往适用于不同的政治单位，而不是连续的空间。空间模型通过表明显著的负向和正向聚类关联在何种程度上出现，对层次方法起到了补充作用。认识到空间模型和嵌套模型的比较优势与局限性，有助于增强对热带LUCC和人类 - 环境相互作用进行地理分析的整体方法。
