Ashley N. Sanders-Jackson and Stanton A. Glantz are with the Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, University of California, San Francisco. Anna V. Song is with University of California Merced, Psychological Sciences, Merced. Heikki Hiilamo is with Social Insurance Institution of Finland, Helsinki.
Am J Public Health. 2013 Nov;103(11):2041-7. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301324. Epub 2013 Sep 12.
We quantified the pattern and passage rate of cigarette package health warning labels (HWLs), including the effect of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and HWLs voluntarily implemented by tobacco companies.
We used transition probability matrices to describe the pattern of HWL passage and change rate in 4 periods. We used event history analysis to estimate the effect of the FCTC on adoption and to compare that effect between countries with voluntary and mandatory HWLs.
The number of HWLs passed during each period accelerated, from a transition rate among countries that changed from 2.42 per year in 1965-1977 to 6.71 in 1977-1984, 8.42 in 1984-2003, and 22.33 in 2003-2012. The FCTC significantly accelerated passage of FCTC-compliant HWLs for countries with initially mandatory policies with a hazard of 1.27 per year (95% confidence interval = 1.11, 1.45), but only marginally increased the hazard for countries that had an industry voluntary HWL of 1.68 per year (95% confidence interval = 0.95, 2.97).
Passage of HWLs is accelerating, and the FCTC is associated with further acceleration. Industry voluntary HWLs slowed mandated HWLs.
我们量化了香烟包装健康警示标签（HWLs）的出现和更替模式，包括《烟草控制框架公约》（FCTC）和烟草公司自愿实施的 HWLs 的影响。
我们使用转移概率矩阵来描述 4 个时期 HWL 更替的模式和更替率。我们使用事件历史分析来估计 FCTC 对采用的影响，并比较具有自愿和强制 HWLs 的国家之间的这种影响。
每个时期 HWL 的数量都在加速增加，从 1965-1977 年的每年 2.42 个国家间的更替率，到 1977-1984 年的 6.71、1984-2003 年的 8.42 和 2003-2012 年的 22.33。FCTC 显著加速了最初采用强制性政策的国家中符合 FCTC 的 HWL 的更替，其危险比为每年 1.27（95%置信区间=1.11，1.45），但对已经有行业自愿 HWL 的国家的危险比仅略有增加，为每年 1.68（95%置信区间=0.95，2.97）。
HWL 的更替正在加速，FCTC 与之相关，进一步加速了更替。行业自愿 HWLs 减缓了强制性 HWLs 的更替。
