Ware J H, Dockery D W, Louis T A, Xu X P, Ferris B G, Speizer F E
Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115.
Am J Epidemiol. 1990 Oct;132(4):685-700. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115710.
This paper describes methods for simultaneous cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of repeated measurements obtained in cohort studies with regular examination schedules, then uses these methods to describe age-related changes in pulmonary function level among nonsmoking participants in the Six Cities Study, a longitudinal study of air pollution and respiratory health conducted between 1974 and 1983 in Watertown, Massachusetts; Kingston and Harriman, Tennessee; St. Louis, Missouri; Steubenville, Ohio; Portage, Wisconsin; and Topeka, Kansas. The subjects, initially aged 25-74, were examined on three occasions at 3-year intervals. Individual rates of loss increased more rapidly with age than predicted from the cross-sectional model. For example, for a male of height 1.75 m, the cross-sectional model predicted an increase in the annual rate of loss of FEV1 from 23.7 ml/yr at age 25 to 39.0 ml/yr at age 75, while the longitudinal model gave rates of loss increasing from 12.9 ml/yr at age 25 to 58.2 ml/yr at age 75. These results contrast with those of other studies comparing longitudinal and cross-sectional estimates of pulmonary function loss.
本文描述了在具有定期检查计划的队列研究中对重复测量数据进行同步横断面和纵向分析的方法，然后运用这些方法描述了“六城市研究”中不吸烟参与者肺功能水平随年龄的变化情况。“六城市研究”是1974年至1983年期间在马萨诸塞州沃特敦、田纳西州金斯敦和哈里曼、密苏里州圣路易斯、俄亥俄州斯特本维尔、威斯康星州波蒂奇以及堪萨斯州托皮卡开展的一项关于空气污染与呼吸健康的纵向研究。研究对象最初年龄在25至74岁之间，每隔3年接受3次检查。个体肺功能丧失率随年龄增长的速度比横断面模型预测的要快。例如，对于一名身高1.75米的男性，横断面模型预测其第一秒用力呼气容积（FEV1）的年丧失率从25岁时的23.7毫升/年增加到75岁时的39.0毫升/年，而纵向模型得出的丧失率则从25岁时的12.9毫升/年增加到75岁时的58.2毫升/年。这些结果与其他比较肺功能丧失纵向和横断面估计值的研究结果形成对比。
