Reingle Jennifer M, Jennings Wesley G, Maldonado-Molina Mildred M
Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Youth Violence Juv Justice. 2012 Jul;10(3):261-277. doi: 10.1177/1541204011431589.
To estimate trajectories of violence using a longitudinal sample of adolescents, considering the effects of multiple domains of influences as differentiators between profiles of violent behavior. A nationally representative sample of 9,421 adolescents ages 15-26. Trajectories were estimated, and multinomial regression procedures were used to evaluate factors predicting membership in high-violence trajectory groups. Mediation analyses were conducted to evaluate the mediated effect of distal influences on violence. Three groups of violence trajectories were identified: (a) nonviolent (73.1%); (b) escalators (14.6%); and (c) desistors (12.3%). Peer alcohol use predicted both escalation and desistance; however, these effects were mediated through individual-level variables. Aside from baseline violence, no other risk factor predicted membership in the "escalator" group. The lack of significance in predicting escalation highlights the need for further study on the etiology of late onset violence. Implications for violence prevention are discussed.
利用青少年纵向样本估计暴力行为轨迹，将多个影响领域的作用视为暴力行为特征之间的区分因素。选取了9421名年龄在15 - 26岁之间具有全国代表性的青少年样本。估计了行为轨迹，并使用多项回归程序评估预测高暴力行为轨迹组成员身份的因素。进行中介分析以评估远端影响对暴力行为的中介效应。确定了三组暴力行为轨迹：(a)非暴力组(73.1%)；(b)暴力升级组(14.6%)；(c)停止暴力组(12.3%)。同伴饮酒行为既预测了暴力升级也预测了停止暴力；然而，这些影响是通过个体层面的变量介导的。除了基线暴力行为外，没有其他风险因素能够预测“暴力升级”组的成员身份。预测暴力升级缺乏显著性，这凸显了对迟发性暴力行为病因进行进一步研究的必要性。文中还讨论了对暴力预防的启示。
