The National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Bülowsvej 27, 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
Prev Vet Med. 2013 Nov 1;112(3-4):194-202. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.09.003. Epub 2013 Sep 12.
The decision on whether or not to change the control strategy, such as introducing emergency vaccination, is perhaps one of the most difficult decisions faced by the veterinary authorities during a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic. A simple tool that may predict the epidemic outcome and consequences would be useful to assist the veterinary authorities in the decision-making process. A previously proposed simple quantitative tool based on the first 14 days outbreaks (FFO) of FMD was used with results from an FMD simulation exercise. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size and costs. The first 14 days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to further support the prediction. The epidemic data was obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of a pre-existing FMD simulation model (Davis Animal Disease Spread - DADS) adapted to model the spread of FMD in Denmark. The European Union (EU) and Danish regulations for FMD control were used in the simulation. The correlations between FFO and FFS and the additional number of affected herds after day 14 following detection of the first infected herd were 0.66 and 0.82, respectively. The variation explained by the FFO at day 14 following detection was high (P-value<0.001). This indicates that the FFO may take a part in the decision of whether or not to intensify FMD control, for instance by introducing emergency vaccination and/or pre-emptive depopulation, which might prevent a "catastrophic situation". A significant part of the variation was explained by supplementing the model with the FFS (P-value<0.001). Furthermore, the type of the index-herd was also a significant predictor of the epidemic outcomes (P-value<0.05). The results of the current study suggest that national veterinary authorities should consider to model their national situation and to use FFO and FFS to help planning and updating their contingency plans and FMD emergency control strategies.
是否改变控制策略，例如引入紧急疫苗接种，是口蹄疫（FMD）疫情期间兽医当局面临的最困难决策之一。一个简单的工具，如果可以预测疫情结果和后果，将有助于兽医当局做出决策。此前提出的一种基于口蹄疫首次 14 天爆发（FFO）的简单定量工具，与口蹄疫模拟演习的结果一起使用。疫情结果包括受影响畜群的数量、疫情持续时间、地理范围和成本。还包括了前 14 天的空间传播（FFS），以进一步支持预测。疫情数据来自于预先存在的口蹄疫模拟模型（Davis Animal Disease Spread-DADS）的丹麦版本（DTU-DADS），该模型适用于模拟口蹄疫在丹麦的传播。模拟中使用了欧盟（EU）和丹麦的口蹄疫控制法规。在首次发现受感染畜群后的第 14 天，FFO 与 FFS 之间以及受影响畜群数量之间的相关性分别为 0.66 和 0.82。检测到第一头受感染畜群后第 14 天的 FFO 变异解释率很高（P 值<0.001）。这表明，FFO 可能在决定是否加强口蹄疫控制方面发挥作用，例如通过引入紧急疫苗接种和/或先发制人的扑杀，这可能防止“灾难性局面”。通过在模型中补充 FFS，可以解释很大一部分变异（P 值<0.001）。此外，索引畜群的类型也是疫情结果的重要预测因素（P 值<0.05）。本研究的结果表明，国家兽医当局应考虑模拟其国家情况，并使用 FFO 和 FFS 来帮助规划和更新其应急预案和口蹄疫紧急控制策略。
