Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2013 Sep 30;10(10):4690-700. doi: 10.3390/ijerph10104690.
The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number R0 was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, i.e., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity.
中国政府实施了为期 60 天的强制性隔离（2009 年 5 月 10 日至 7 月 8 日），作为控制 2009 年 H1N1 大流行的预防策略。这种预防策略比许多其他国家实施的其他非药物干预措施更为严格。我们评估了强制性隔离的效果，并为可能发生的未来流感大流行的干预措施提供了建议。我们选择了一个城市，北京，作为分析目标。我们回顾了 2009 年 H1N1 大流行的流行病学动态和北京隔离措施的实施情况。我们使用确定性易感-暴露-感染-恢复（SEIR）模型，在两种情景（隔离和不隔离）下模拟了感染人群。调整基本繁殖数 R0 以匹配北京的疫情波动。我们发现，强制性隔离使北京的 2009 年 H1N1 大流行的传播推迟了一个半月。如果北京不实施强制性隔离，感染人口可能在 10 月 21 日达到 1553 人，即比观察到的人数高 5.6 倍。考虑到隔离成本，强制性隔离并不是针对 2009 年 H1N1 大流行的经济有效的干预措施。我们建议采取缓解方法来应对死亡率和发病率较低的流感大流行。
