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企业驾驶员管理视角:基于偏最小二乘结构方程模型的公交车碰撞伤害严重程度因素影响机制分析

Corporate driver management perspectives: A PLS-SEM-based analysis of the mechanism of bus crash injury severity factor effects.

作者信息

Zheng Lili, Yang Yujing, Ding Tongqiang, Liu Haode, Meng Fanyun, Zhang Yanlin

机构信息

Transportation College of Jilin University, Changchun, 130022, China.

China Academy of Transportation Sciences, MOT, PR China, Beijing, 100029, China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Oct 30;10(23):e39959. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39959. eCollection 2024 Dec 15.

Abstract

In view of the suddenness, complexity and high-risk potential of bus crashes, the injury severity and its influencing factors have increasingly became the research focus in urban transportation safety management. The purpose of this study is to analyze the core elements of bus crash injury severity and its interaction mechanism, in order to provide a scientific basis for improving the bus operation safety. In this study, 283 crashes occurred in a Chongqing bus company from January to June 2022 were taken as samples around the dimensions of drivers' educational background, driving characteristics, weather, and corporate management strategies. PLS-SEM, CoMe index, MICOM, and permutation-based MGA are comprehensively applied to deeply analyze the direct and indirect effects among variables and reveal the conditional mediation effect. The study found crash injury severity effects ranked in order of crash liability, work intensity, weather conditions, violation tendency, education, and driving experience. Bus driver's crash liability plays a fully mediating role between several factors and injury severity, while improving education and increasing rest gap time are effective in reducing bus driver's crash liability. Notably, bad weather flat peaks and good weather peak periods are prone to more severe bus crashes. In addition, the mediating effect of driving experience on liability level through violation tendency was significant only in bus driver groups with moderate to high sense of work responsibility. This study deepens our understanding of bus crash injury severity and its interaction mechanism, guiding targeted safety measures for bus corporation and boosting overall public transportation safety.

摘要

鉴于公交车事故的突发性、复杂性和高风险潜在性,伤害严重程度及其影响因素日益成为城市交通安全管理的研究重点。本研究旨在分析公交车事故伤害严重程度的核心要素及其相互作用机制,为提高公交车运营安全性提供科学依据。本研究以重庆某公交公司2022年1月至6月发生的283起事故为样本,围绕驾驶员学历、驾驶特性、天气和企业管理策略等维度展开。综合应用偏最小二乘结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)、CoMe指数、MICOM以及基于排列的多组分析(MGA),深入分析变量之间的直接和间接影响,揭示条件中介效应。研究发现,事故伤害严重程度的影响因素按事故责任、工作强度、天气状况、违规倾向、学历和驾驶经验排序。公交车驾驶员的事故责任在多个因素与伤害严重程度之间起到完全中介作用,而提高学历和增加休息间隔时间对降低公交车驾驶员的事故责任有效。值得注意的是,恶劣天气平峰期和好天气高峰期更容易发生更严重的公交车事故。此外,驾驶经验通过违规倾向对责任水平的中介作用仅在工作责任感中等至高的公交车驾驶员群体中显著。本研究加深了我们对公交车事故伤害严重程度及其相互作用机制的理解,为公交企业制定针对性的安全措施提供指导,提升整体公共交通安全水平。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2600/11650300/09e65fde91ae/gr1.jpg

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