Computer-aided Drug Design: Using Numbers to your Advantage.

Computer-aided drug design could benefit from a greater understanding of how errors arise and propagate in biomolecular modeling. With such knowledge, model predictions could be associated with quantitative estimates of their uncertainty. In addition, novel algorithms could be designed to proactively reduce prediction errors. We investigated how errors propagate in statistical mechanical ensembles and found that free energy evaluations based on single molecular configurations yield maximum uncertainties in free energy. Furthermore, increasing the size of the ensemble by sampling and averaging over additional independent configurations reduces uncertainties in free energy dramatically. This finding suggests a general strategy that could be utilized as a post-hoc correction for improved precision in virtual screening and free energy estimation.