Bush Kathleen F, O'Neill Marie S, Li Shi, Mukherjee Bhramar, Hu Howard, Ghosh Santu, Balakrishnan Kalpana
Department of Environmental Health Sciences.
Environ Health Perspect. 2014 Mar;122(3):249-54. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1306807. Epub 2013 Dec 17.
Understanding the potential links between extreme weather events and human health in India is important in the context of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Research exploring such linkages in India is sparse.
We evaluated the association between extreme precipitation and gastrointestinal (GI) illness-related hospital admissions in Chennai, India, from 2004 to 2007.
Daily hospital admissions were extracted from two government hospitals in Chennai, India, and meteorological data were retrieved from the Chennai International Airport. We evaluated the association between extreme precipitation (≥ 90th percentile) and hospital admissions using generalized additive models. Both single-day and distributed lag models were explored over a 15-day period, controlling for apparent temperature, day of week, and long-term time trends. We used a stratified analysis to explore the association across age and season.
Extreme precipitation was consistently associated with GI-related hospital admissions. The cumulative summary of risk ratios estimated for a 15-day period corresponding to an extreme event (relative to no precipitation) was 1.60 (95% CI: 1.29, 1.98) among all ages, 2.72 (95% CI: 1.25, 5.92) among the young (≤ 5 years of age), and 1.62 (95% CI: 0.97, 2.70) among the old (≥ 65 years of age). The association was stronger during the pre-monsoon season (March-May), with a cumulative risk ratio of 6.50 (95% CI: 2.22, 19.04) for all ages combined compared with other seasons.
Hospital admissions related to GI illness were positively associated with extreme precipitation in Chennai, India, with positive cumulative risk ratios for a 15-day period following an extreme event in all age groups. Projected changes in precipitation and extreme weather events suggest that climate change will have important implications for human health in India, where health disparities already exist.
Bush KF, O'Neill MS, Li S, Mukherjee B, Hu H, Ghosh S, Balakrishnan K. 2014. Associations between extreme precipitation and gastrointestinal-related hospital admissions in Chennai, India. Environ Health Perspect 122:249-254; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306807.
在印度易受气候变化影响并需适应气候变化的背景下，了解极端天气事件与人类健康之间的潜在联系至关重要。在印度，探索此类联系的研究较为稀少。
我们评估了2004年至2007年印度钦奈极端降水与胃肠道（GI）疾病相关住院率之间的关联。
从印度钦奈的两家政府医院提取每日住院数据，并从钦奈国际机场获取气象数据。我们使用广义相加模型评估极端降水（≥第90百分位数）与住院率之间的关联。在15天的时间段内探索了单日和分布滞后模型，同时控制体感温度、星期几和长期时间趋势。我们使用分层分析来探索不同年龄和季节之间的关联。
极端降水始终与胃肠道相关住院率有关。在对应极端事件的15天期间（相对于无降水），所有年龄段的风险比累积汇总为1.60（95%置信区间：1.29，1.98），儿童（≤5岁）为2.72（95%置信区间：1.25，5.92），老年人（≥65岁）为1.62（95%置信区间：0.97，2.70）。与其他季节相比，在季风前季节（3月至5月）这种关联更强，所有年龄段综合的累积风险比为6.50（95%置信区间：2.22，19.04）。
在印度钦奈，与胃肠道疾病相关的住院率与极端降水呈正相关，在极端事件发生后的15天期间，所有年龄组的累积风险比均为正值。预计降水和极端天气事件的变化表明，气候变化将对印度的人类健康产生重要影响，而印度已经存在健康差距。
Bush KF, O'Neill MS, Li S, Mukherjee B, Hu H, Ghosh S, Balakrishnan K. 2014. 印度钦奈极端降水与胃肠道相关住院率之间的关联。《环境健康展望》122:249 - 254；http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306807。
