Bush Kathleen F, Fossani Cheryl L, Li Shi, Mukherjee Bhramar, Gronlund Carina J, O'Neill Marie S
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014 Feb 14;11(2):2014-32. doi: 10.3390/ijerph110202014.
As a result of climate change, extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. Runoff from these extreme events poses threats to water quality and human health. We investigated the impact of extreme precipitation and beach closings on the risk of gastrointestinal illness (GI)-related hospital admissions among individuals 65 and older in 12 Great Lakes cities from 2000 to 2006. Poisson regression models were fit in each city, controlling for temperature and long-term time trends. City-specific estimates were combined to form an overall regional risk estimate. Approximately 40,000 GI-related hospital admissions and over 100 beach closure days were recorded from May through September during the study period. Extreme precipitation (≥90th percentile) occurring the previous day (lag 1) is significantly associated with beach closures in 8 of the 12 cities (p < 0.05). However, no association was observed between beach closures and GI-related hospital admissions. These results support previous work linking extreme precipitation to compromised recreational water quality.
由于气候变化，极端降水事件的频率和强度预计将会增加。这些极端事件产生的径流对水质和人类健康构成威胁。我们调查了2000年至2006年期间极端降水和海滩关闭对12个五大湖城市65岁及以上人群胃肠道疾病（GI）相关住院风险的影响。在每个城市拟合泊松回归模型，同时控制温度和长期时间趋势。将特定城市的估计值合并以形成总体区域风险估计值。在研究期间的5月至9月，记录了约40,000例与胃肠道疾病相关的住院病例和100多个海滩关闭日。前一天（滞后1天）出现的极端降水（≥第90百分位数）与12个城市中的8个城市的海滩关闭显著相关（p < 0.05）。然而，未观察到海滩关闭与胃肠道疾病相关住院病例之间存在关联。这些结果支持了之前将极端降水与娱乐用水水质受损联系起来的研究工作。
