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中国性别歧视的人口后果:政策选项的模拟分析

Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options.

作者信息

Quanbao Jiang, Shuzhuo Li, Marcus W Feldman

机构信息

Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, Shaanxi Province, China.

Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

出版信息

Popul Res Policy Rev. 2011 Aug;30(4). doi: 10.1007/s11113-011-9203-8.

Abstract

The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country's population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China's population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China's population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination.

摘要

中国存在大量因性别歧视导致的女性缺失现象,这已经并将继续对该国的人口发展产生深远影响。在本文中,我们从制度、文化和经济方面分析了这种性别歧视的成因,并提出了可能有助于消除性别歧视的公共政策。我们使用人口模拟模型,研究了公共政策对出生性别比和女童超额死亡率的影响,以及性别歧视对中国人口发展的影响。我们发现,性别歧视将减少中国的人口规模、出生人数和劳动年龄人口,加速人口老龄化并加剧男性婚姻挤压。这些结果为建议政府制定和实施旨在消除性别歧视的公共政策提供了理论支持。

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