Cai Yong
Department of Sociology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0250, USA.
Demography. 2008 May;45(2):271-81. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0003.
The fertility level in China is a matter of uncertainty and controversy. This paper applies Preston and Coale's (1982) variable-r method to assess the fertility level in China. By using data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses as well as annual population change surveys, the variable-r method confirms that Chinese fertility has reached a level well below replacement.
中国的生育率水平存在不确定性和争议。本文运用普雷斯顿和科尔（1982年）的可变r方法来评估中国的生育率水平。通过使用中国1990年和2000年人口普查数据以及年度人口变化调查数据，可变r方法证实中国的生育率已降至远低于更替水平。
