Merli M G, Raftery A E
Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison 53706, USA.
Demography. 2000 Feb;37(1):109-26.
Under the current family planning policy in China, the criterion for evaluating all parties involved in the birth planning system provides an incentive for everyone to see that the policy is met, either in reality through strict enforcement of family planning regulations, or statistically through manipulation of statistical records. We investigate underreporting of births in four rural counties of northern China, using data from a 1992 sample survey featuring a reproductive history. To clarify the mechanisms of underreporting, we focus on the ways in which reporting errors may affect the distribution of first births by time since marriage. The results of our investigation suggest that in three of the four counties, first-birth intervals are lengthened by underreporting of girl babies and by replacing them with second births reported as first births.
在中国现行计划生育政策下，对计划生育系统中所有相关方的评估标准促使每个人确保政策得以落实，要么通过严格执行计划生育法规在实际中落实，要么通过操纵统计记录在数据上达标。我们利用1992年一项包含生育史的抽样调查数据，对中国北方四个农村县的出生漏报情况进行了调查。为了厘清出生漏报的机制，我们重点关注报告错误可能影响初育时间分布的方式。我们的调查结果表明，在四个县中的三个县，女婴漏报以及将女婴出生替换为上报的头胎出生导致了初育间隔延长。
