a Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation , Calverton , Maryland.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2014;15(3):213-21. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2013.808338.
Driving under the influence (DUI) enforcement practices and sanctions contribute differentially to the certainty, swiftness, and severity of punishment, which are the key components of general deterrence theory. This study used a conjoint experiment to understand the decision-making process of potential DUI offenders and tested how variation in enforcement and legal punishment affects drinking and driving decisions. It sought to verify and quantify the unique deterrent effects of certainty, severity, and swiftness and to predict the rates of drinking and driving in different legal environments.
One hundred twenty-one college seniors and graduate students at the University of Maryland participated in the Web-based conjoint experiment. They were randomly assigned to 4 blocks, each of which included 9 hypothetical scenarios composed of different levels of DUI enforcement and penalties. Respondents were asked to state their likelihood of drinking and driving under each scenario, as well as their estimated chance of being caught by the police for DUI.
Intensified enforcement, harsh jail penalty, and immediate long license suspension were found to be the strongest deterrents to drinking and driving. Alternative ways to get home were also important in reducing people's willingness to drive. These factors accounted for most of the attribute effect on the DUI decision, whereas delayed punishment due to judicial processing, fine penalty, and legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit had negligible effects. For the personal characteristics, college seniors and those who had previously driven after drinking were more likely to choose to drink and drive, whereas those who expect a jail penalty for a DUI offense were less likely to drive.
Our research confirmed and quantified certainty of punishment as the greatest deterrent to DUI, but it also indicated the equally important effect of a severe jail penalty. It provides evidence on the feasibility of using a conjoint experiment in future studies to understand the general driver population and, with the help of a simulation tool, to predict DUI decisions in different legal environments. Such predictions can be used to better inform policy decisions on developing targeted general deterrence programs in different communities.
酒后驾车（DUI）执法实践和处罚的差异会影响惩罚的确定性、迅速性和严厉性，而这是一般威慑理论的关键组成部分。本研究使用联合实验来了解潜在酒后驾车者的决策过程，并测试执法和法律处罚的变化如何影响饮酒和驾驶决策。该研究旨在验证和量化确定性、严厉性和迅速性的独特威慑效果，并预测在不同法律环境下的饮酒和驾驶率。
121 名马里兰大学的大四学生和研究生参与了这项基于网络的联合实验。他们被随机分配到 4 个组块，每个组块都包含 9 种不同酒驾执法和处罚水平的假设情景。要求受访者在每种情景下表示自己饮酒和驾驶的可能性，以及他们因酒驾被警方抓获的估计几率。
强化执法、严厉的监禁处罚和立即吊销长期驾照被发现是阻止饮酒和驾驶的最强威慑因素。替代回家的方式也在降低人们驾驶意愿方面很重要。这些因素在 DUI 决策中占主导地位，而由于司法程序、罚款和法定血液酒精浓度（BAC）限制导致的延迟惩罚则几乎没有影响。就个人特征而言，大四学生和那些有过酒后驾车经历的人更有可能选择饮酒和驾驶，而那些预计因 DUI 犯罪会被判入狱的人则不太可能开车。
我们的研究证实并量化了惩罚的确定性是 DUI 的最大威慑因素，但也表明了严厉监禁处罚的同等重要性。它为使用联合实验在未来的研究中了解一般驾驶员群体提供了证据，并借助模拟工具，预测不同法律环境下的 DUI 决策。这些预测可以用于更好地为不同社区制定有针对性的一般威慑计划的政策决策提供信息。
