Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, GPO Box 858, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, GPO Box 858, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Prev Vet Med. 2014 Mar 1;113(4):436-46. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.12.003. Epub 2013 Dec 21.
An outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could seriously impact Australia's livestock sector and economy. As an FMD-free country, an outbreak would trigger a major disease control and eradication program that would include the culling of infected and at risk animals ('stamping out'), movement restrictions and zoo-sanitary measures. Additional control measures may also include pre-emptive culling or vaccination. However, it is unclear what disease strategy would be most effective under Australian conditions and different resource levels. Using a stochastic simulation model that describes FMD transmission between farms in a livestock dense region of Australia, our results suggest that using current estimates of human resource capacity for surveillance, infected premises operations and vaccination, outbreaks were effectively controlled under a stamping out strategy. However, under more constrained resource allocations, ring vaccination was more likely to achieve eradication faster than stamping out or pre-emptive culling strategies.
口蹄疫疫情爆发可能会对澳大利亚的畜牧业和经济造成严重影响。作为一个无口蹄疫国家，疫情爆发将引发重大的疾病控制和根除计划，包括扑杀感染和受感染风险的动物（“消灭”）、限制动物移动和采取动物卫生措施。其他控制措施还可能包括预防性扑杀或接种疫苗。然而，在澳大利亚的条件和不同的资源水平下，哪种疾病防控策略最为有效尚不清楚。我们使用一种描述澳大利亚一个畜牧业密集地区农场之间口蹄疫传播的随机模拟模型，结果表明，在利用当前对监测、受感染场所作业和接种疫苗的人力资源能力的估计的情况下，“消灭”策略可有效控制疫情。然而，在资源配置更有限的情况下，环形疫苗接种比“消灭”或预防性扑杀策略更有可能更快地实现根除。
