Garner M G, Bombarderi N, Cozens M, Conway M L, Wright T, Paskin R, East I J
Department of Agriculture, Australian Government, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Government of South Australia, Primary Industries and Regions, Glenside, SA, Australia.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2016 Feb;63(1):e109-21. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12239. Epub 2014 Jun 4.
A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.
近期提交给澳大利亚政府的一份报告指出了与澳大利亚应对口蹄疫中大规模疫情能力相关的问题。为评估所需资源，利用AusSpread疾病模拟模型构建了一个合理的疫情场景，即疫情在维多利亚州首个场所出现28天后被发现时，五个不同州有62个感染场所。感染动物和/或受污染产品/设备的移动导致新南威尔士州、昆士兰州、南澳大利亚州和塔斯马尼亚州出现规模较小的疫情。在人员资源不受限制的情况下，疫情在63天内得到根除，有54个感染场所，且在3个月内根除的概率为98%。据估计，这种无限制应对措施需要2724名人员。认为人员不受限制不现实，因此，模拟了疫情发展过程，采用三个人员配置级别，并确定了在引入疫情后3个月或6个月内实现根除的概率。在基线人员配置水平下，疫情在3个月内根除的概率仅为16%，6个月内根除的概率为60%。在应对的前三周增派60名人员，使3个月内根除疫情的可能性提高到68%，6个月内提高到100%。进一步增派人员逐步提高了及时根除疫情的可能性，并缩短了疫情持续时间和规模。在高风险地区有针对性地使用疫苗，再加上基线人员资源，使3个月内根除疫情的概率提高到74%，6个月内提高到100%。这需要25个疫苗接种小组在控制计划开始12天后开始工作，3周后增加到50个疫苗接种小组。向监测和感染场所作业部署同等数量的额外人员，在减少疫情规模和持续时间方面同样有效。
