Rothman Kenneth J
Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA,
J Gen Intern Med. 2014 Jul;29(7):1060-4. doi: 10.1007/s11606-013-2755-z. Epub 2014 Jan 23.
Scientific knowledge changes rapidly, but the concepts and methods of the conduct of research change more slowly. To stimulate discussion of outmoded thinking regarding the conduct of research, I list six misconceptions about research that persist long after their flaws have become apparent. The misconceptions are: 1) There is a hierarchy of study designs; randomized trials provide the greatest validity, followed by cohort studies, with case-control studies being least reliable. 2) An essential element for valid generalization is that the study subjects constitute a representative sample of a target population. 3) If a term that denotes the product of two factors in a regression model is not statistically significant, then there is no biologic interaction between those factors. 4) When categorizing a continuous variable, a reasonable scheme for choosing category cut-points is to use percentile-defined boundaries, such as quartiles or quintiles of the distribution. 5) One should always report P values or confidence intervals that have been adjusted for multiple comparisons. 6) Significance testing is useful and important for the interpretation of data. These misconceptions have been perpetuated in journals, classrooms and textbooks. They persist because they represent intellectual shortcuts that avoid more thoughtful approaches to research problems. I hope that calling attention to these misconceptions will spark the debates needed to shelve these outmoded ideas for good.
科学知识日新月异,但研究方法和理念的更新却相对滞后。为了引发对过时研究思维的讨论,我列出了六个关于研究的误解,这些误解在其缺陷已然显现之后,仍长期存在。这些误解分别是:1)研究设计存在等级之分;随机试验的效度最高,其次是队列研究,病例对照研究最不可靠。2)有效推广的一个关键要素是研究对象构成目标人群的代表性样本。3)如果回归模型中表示两个因素乘积的项无统计学显著性,那么这两个因素之间不存在生物学相互作用。4)对连续变量进行分类时,选择分类切点的合理方案是使用百分位数定义的边界,如分布的四分位数或五分位数。5)人们应该始终报告经多重比较调整后的P值或置信区间。6)显著性检验对数据解释有用且重要。这些误解在期刊、课堂和教科书中一直存在。它们之所以持续存在,是因为它们代表了一种思维捷径,回避了对研究问题进行更深入思考的方法。我希望对这些误解的关注能引发必要的辩论,从而彻底摒弃这些过时的观念。