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西班牙 2009 年甲型 H1N1 流感大流行期间及随后两个流感季节流感发病率的地域分布。

Geographical spread of influenza incidence in Spain during the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave and the two succeeding influenza seasons.

机构信息

CIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid,Spain.

Centro Superior de Investigación en Salud Pública (CSISP-FISABIO), Valencia,Spain.

出版信息

Epidemiol Infect. 2014 Dec;142(12):2629-41. doi: 10.1017/S0950268813003439. Epub 2014 Jan 27.

DOI:10.1017/S0950268813003439
PMID:24476599
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9151274/
Abstract

The aim of this study was to monitor the spatio-temporal spread of influenza incidence in Spain during the 2009 pandemic and the following two influenza seasons 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 using a Bayesian Poisson mixed regression model; and implement this model of geographical analysis in the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System to obtain maps of influenza incidence for every week. In the pandemic wave the maps showed influenza activity spreading from west to east. The 2010-2011 influenza epidemic wave plotted a north-west/south-east pattern of spread. During the 2011-2012 season the spread of influenza was geographically heterogeneous. The most important source of variability in the model is the temporal term. The model of spatio-temporal spread of influenza incidence is a supplementary tool of influenza surveillance in Spain.

摘要

本研究旨在使用贝叶斯泊松混合回归模型监测 2009 年大流行期间以及随后的 2010-2011 年和 2011-2012 年流感季节期间西班牙流感发病率的时空传播情况；并在西班牙流感监测系统中实施这种地理分析模型，以获得每周的流感发病率图。在大流行期间，地图显示流感活动从西向东传播。2010-2011 年流感流行波呈现出西北/东南传播模式。在 2011-2012 季节期间，流感的传播具有地域异质性。模型中最重要的可变性来源是时间项。流感发病率时空传播模型是西班牙流感监测的补充工具。

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[Surveillance of influenza pandemic (H1N1)2009 in Spain].[2009年西班牙甲型H1N1流感大流行监测]
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