Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430, China; Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430, China.
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
Environ Pollut. 2014 Apr;187:116-23. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2013.12.027. Epub 2014 Jan 26.
This study aimed to investigate the effects of dust-haze on mortality and to estimate the seasonal and individual-specific modification effects in Guangzhou, China. Mortality, air pollution and meteorological data were collected for 2006-2011. A dust-haze day was defined as daily visibility <10 km with relative humidity <90%. This definition was further divided into light (8-10 km), medium (5-8 km) and heavy dust-haze (<5 km). A distributed lag linear model (DLM) was employed. Light, medium and heavy dust-haze days were associated with increased mortality of 3.4%, 6.8% and 10.4% respectively, at a lag of 0-6 days. This effect was more pronounced during the cold season, for cardiovascular mortality (CVD), respiratory mortality (RESP), in males and people ≥60years. These effects became insignificant after adjustment for PM10. We concluded that dust-haze significantly increased mortality risk in Guangzhou, China, and this effect appears to be dominated by particulate mass and modified by season and individual-specific factors.
本研究旨在探讨灰霾天气对死亡率的影响，并估计中国广州的季节性和个体特异性修正效应。收集了 2006 年至 2011 年的死亡率、空气污染和气象数据。将灰霾日定义为每日能见度<10 公里，相对湿度<90%。该定义进一步分为轻（8-10 公里）、中（5-8 公里）和重灰霾（<5 公里）。采用分布式滞后线性模型（DLM）。轻度、中度和重度灰霾天气分别在滞后 0-6 天内导致死亡率增加 3.4%、6.8%和 10.4%。这种影响在寒冷季节、心血管疾病死亡率（CVD）、呼吸系统死亡率（RESP）和男性以及 60 岁以上人群中更为明显。调整 PM10 后，这些影响变得不显著。我们得出结论，灰霾天气显著增加了中国广州的死亡率风险，这种影响似乎主要由颗粒物质量主导，并受季节和个体特异性因素的修正。
