Fergusson David M, McLeod Geraldine F, Horwood L John
Department of Psychological Medicine, Christchurch School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, New Zealand
Department of Psychological Medicine, Christchurch School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, New Zealand.
Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 2014 Aug;48(8):735-42. doi: 10.1177/0004867414525840. Epub 2014 Mar 3.
We aimed to examine the associations between exposure to unemployment and psychosocial outcomes over the period from 16 to 30 years, using data from a well-studied birth cohort.
Data were collected over the course of the Christchurch Health and Development Study, a longitudinal study of a birth cohort of 1265 children, born in Christchurch in 1977, who have been studied to age 30. Assessments of unemployment and psychosocial outcomes (mental health, substance abuse/dependence, criminal offending, adverse life events and life satisfaction) were obtained at ages 18, 21, 25 and 30.
Prior to adjustment, an increasing duration of unemployment was associated with significant increases in the risk of all psychosocial outcomes. These associations were adjusted for confounding using conditional, fixed-effects regression techniques. The analyses showed significant (p < 0.05) or marginally significant (p < 0.10) associations between the duration of unemployment and major depression (p = 0.05), alcohol abuse/dependence (p = 0.043), illicit substance abuse/dependence (p = 0.017), property/violent offending (p < 0.001), arrests/convictions (p = 0.052), serious financial problems (p = 0.007) and life satisfaction (p = 0.092). To test for reverse causality, the fixed-effects regression models were extended to include lagged, time-dynamic variables representing the respondent's psychosocial burden prior to the experience of unemployment. The findings suggested that the association between unemployment and psychosocial outcomes was likely to involve a causal process in which unemployment led to increased risks of adverse psychosocial outcomes. Effect sizes were estimated using attributable risk; exposure to unemployment accounted for between 4.2 and 14.0% (median 10.8%) of the risk of experiencing the significant psychosocial outcomes.
The findings of this study suggest that exposure to unemployment had small but pervasive effects on psychosocial adjustment in adolescence and young adulthood.
我们旨在利用一个经过充分研究的出生队列的数据，研究16至30岁期间失业暴露与心理社会结果之间的关联。
数据收集于克赖斯特彻奇健康与发展研究过程中，这是一项对1977年在克赖斯特彻奇出生的1265名儿童出生队列进行的纵向研究，这些儿童已被研究至30岁。在18、21、25和30岁时获得了失业情况和心理社会结果（心理健康、药物滥用/依赖、犯罪、不良生活事件和生活满意度）的评估。
在进行调整之前，失业持续时间的增加与所有心理社会结果风险的显著增加相关。使用条件固定效应回归技术对这些关联进行了混杂因素调整。分析显示，失业持续时间与重度抑郁症（p = 0.05）、酒精滥用/依赖（p = 0.043）、非法药物滥用/依赖（p = 0.017）、财产/暴力犯罪（p < 0.001）、逮捕/定罪（p = 0.052）、严重财务问题（p = 0.007）和生活满意度（p = 0.092）之间存在显著（p < 0.05）或边缘显著（p < 0.10）的关联。为了检验反向因果关系，固定效应回归模型进行了扩展，纳入了代表受访者在经历失业之前心理社会负担的滞后时间动态变量。研究结果表明，失业与心理社会结果之间的关联可能涉及一个因果过程，即失业导致不良心理社会结果风险增加。使用归因风险估计效应大小；失业暴露占经历显著心理社会结果风险的4.2%至14.0%（中位数为10.8%）。
本研究结果表明，失业暴露对青少年和青年期的心理社会适应有虽小但普遍的影响。
