Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Exponent Engineering and Scientific Consulting, CA, USA.
Faraday Discuss. 2013;165:369-82. doi: 10.1039/c3fd00034f.
This study examines the 20-year impacts of emissions from all commercial aircraft flights worldwide on climate, cloudiness, and atmospheric composition. Aircraft emissions from each individual flight worldwide were modeled to evolve from the subgrid to grid scale with the global model described and evaluated in Part I of this study. Simulations with and without aircraft emissions were run for 20 years. Aircraft emissions were found to be responsible for -6% of Arctic surface global warming to date, -1.3% of total surface global warming, and -4% of global upper tropospheric warming. Arctic warming due to aircraft slightly decreased Arctic sea ice area. Longer simulations should result in more warming due to the further increase in CO2. Aircraft increased atmospheric stability below cruise altitude and decreased it above cruise altitude. The increase in stability decreased cumulus convection in favor of increased stratiform cloudiness. Aircraft increased total cloud fraction on average. Aircraft increased surface and upper tropospheric ozone by -0.4% and -2.5%, respectively and surface and upper-tropospheric peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) by -0.1% and -5%, respectively. Aircraft emissions increased tropospheric OH, decreasing column CO and CH4 by -1.7% and -0.9%, respectively. Aircraft emissions increased human mortality worldwide by -620 (-240 to 4770) deaths per year, with half due to ozone and the rest to particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5).
本研究考察了全球所有商业航班排放物对气候、云量和大气成分的 20 年影响。采用本研究第一部分中描述和评估的全球模型，将全球范围内每一次航班的飞机排放物从子网格演变到网格尺度进行建模。进行了 20 年的有和无飞机排放物的模拟。结果表明，飞机排放物导致目前北极地表全球变暖减少了 6%，总地表全球变暖减少了 1.3%，全球对流层上部变暖减少了 4%。由于飞机排放物，北极变暖导致北极海冰面积略有减少。由于 CO2 的进一步增加，更长时间的模拟应该会导致更多的变暖。飞机在巡航高度以下增加了大气稳定性，在巡航高度以上降低了大气稳定性。稳定性的增加减少了积云对流，有利于增加平流层云量。飞机平均增加了总云量。飞机分别使地表和对流层上部臭氧增加了-0.4%和-2.5%，使地表和对流层上部过氧乙酰硝酸酯（PAN）增加了-0.1%和-5%。飞机排放物增加了大气中的 OH，使柱 CO 和 CH4 分别减少了-1.7%和-0.9%。飞机排放物使全球范围内的人类死亡率增加了-620（-240 至 4770）人/年，其中一半是由于臭氧，其余是由于直径小于 2.5 微米的颗粒物（PM2.5）。
