School of Community and Regional Planning, and Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Canada.
Disasters. 2010 Apr;34(2):303-27. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2009.01130.x. Epub 2009 Oct 26.
This paper provides a framework for assessing empirical patterns of urban disaster recovery through the use of statistical indicators. Such a framework is needed to develop systematic knowledge on how cities recover from disasters. The proposed framework addresses such issues as defining recovery, filtering out exogenous influences unrelated to the disaster, and making comparisons across disparate areas or events. It is applied to document how Kobe City, Japan, recovered from the catastrophic 1995 earthquake. Findings indicate that while aggregate population regained pre-disaster levels in ten years, population had shifted away from the older urban core. Economic recovery was characterised by a three to four year temporary boost in reconstruction activities, followed by settlement at a level some ten per cent below pre-disaster levels. Other long-term effects included substantial losses of port activity and sectoral shifts toward services and large businesses. These patterns of change and disparity generally accelerated pre-disaster trends.
本文通过使用统计指标，为评估城市灾后恢复的经验模式提供了一个框架。需要这样一个框架来发展关于城市如何从灾害中恢复的系统知识。所提出的框架解决了一些问题，例如定义恢复、过滤与灾害无关的外部影响，以及在不同地区或事件之间进行比较。本文应用该框架来记录日本神户市如何从 1995 年的灾难性地震中恢复。研究结果表明，虽然总人口在十年内恢复到了灾前水平，但人口已经从旧的城市核心区转移出去。经济恢复的特点是重建活动在三到四年内暂时增加，然后恢复到比灾前水平低 10%左右的水平。其他长期影响包括港口活动的大量损失和向服务业和大型企业的部门转移。这些变化和差异的模式总体上加速了灾前的趋势。
