White Laura F, Archer Brett, Pagano Marcello
Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, 801 Massachusetts Ave, Boston, MA 02118, USA.
Emerg Themes Epidemiol. 2014 Mar 21;11(1):4. doi: 10.1186/1742-7622-11-4.
It is widely accepted that influenza transmission dynamics vary by age; however methods to quantify the reproductive number by age group are limited. We introduce a simple method to estimate the reproductive number by modifying the method originally proposed by Wallinga and Teunis and using existing information on contact patterns between age groups. We additionally perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the potential impact of differential healthcare seeking patterns by age. We illustrate this method using data from the 2009 H1N1 Influenza pandemic in Gauteng Province, South Africa.
Our results are consistent with others in showing decreased transmission with age. We show that results can change markedly when we make the account for differential healthcare seeking behaviors by age.
We show substantial heterogeneity in transmission by age group during the Influenza A H1N1 pandemic in South Africa. This information can greatly assist in targeting interventions and implementing social distancing measures.
人们普遍认为流感传播动态因年龄而异；然而，按年龄组量化繁殖数的方法有限。我们引入一种简单方法，通过修改Wallinga和Teunis最初提出的方法并利用年龄组间接触模式的现有信息来估计繁殖数。我们还进行了敏感性分析，以确定不同年龄组就医模式差异的潜在影响。我们使用南非豪登省2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行的数据来说明此方法。
我们的结果与其他研究一致，表明传播随年龄降低。我们发现，考虑到不同年龄组的就医行为差异时，结果可能会有显著变化。
我们表明，在南非甲型H1N1流感大流行期间，各年龄组的传播存在很大异质性。这些信息可极大地有助于确定干预目标并实施社交距离措施。
