Hunter Lori M, O'Neill Brian C
Boulder, CO USA.
Popul Environ. 2014;35(3):231-242. doi: 10.1007/s11111-014-0202-7.
Demographers have much to contribute to climate change science. This paper describes a new framework being developed by the climate research community that holds potential as an organizing tool for population-climate scholarship, as well as being useful for identifying demographic research gaps within the climate change field. The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) represent plausible alternative trends in the evolution of social and natural systems over the twenty-first century at the scale of the world and large regions. The SSPs can help identify population-environment research gaps by illuminating areas of intersection that will shape climate futures but require deeper scientific understanding-the association between urbanization and energy consumption is an example. Also, to vastly enhance the policy relevance of local case studies, the parameters outlined within the SSPs can offer a basic level of harmonization to facilitate generalization. In this way, the SSP framework can increase the relevance and accessibility of population research and, therefore, offer a mechanism through which demographic science can truly offer policy impact.
人口统计学家在气候变化科学领域能做出很大贡献。本文描述了气候研究界正在开发的一个新框架，该框架有望成为人口与气候学术研究的组织工具，也有助于找出气候变化领域内人口统计学研究的空白。共享社会经济路径（SSPs）代表了21世纪世界和大区域尺度上社会和自然系统演变中合理的替代趋势。SSPs可以通过阐明将塑造气候未来但需要更深入科学理解的交叉领域来帮助识别人口与环境研究的空白——城市化与能源消耗之间的关联就是一个例子。此外，为了大幅提高地方案例研究与政策的相关性，SSPs中概述的参数可以提供一个基本的协调水平，以促进概括。通过这种方式，SSP框架可以提高人口研究的相关性和可及性，因此提供一种机制，通过该机制人口统计学能够真正产生政策影响。
