Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre, Moshi, Tanzania.
Trop Med Int Health. 2014 May;19(5):555-62. doi: 10.1111/tmi.12294. Epub 2014 Mar 24.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association, if any, between child mortality and distance to the nearest hospital. METHODS: The study was based on data from a 1-year study of the cause of illness in febrile paediatric admissions to a district hospital in north-east Tanzania. All villages in the catchment population were geolocated, and travel times were estimated from availability of local transport. Using bands of travel time to hospital, we compared admission rates, inpatient case fatality rates and child mortality rates in the catchment population using inpatient deaths as the numerator. RESULTS: Three thousand hundred and eleven children under the age of 5 years were included of whom 4.6% died; 2307 were admitted from <3 h away of whom 3.4% died and 804 were admitted from ≥ 3 h away of whom 8.0% died. The admission rate declined from 125/1000 catchment population at <3 h away to 25/1000 at ≥ 3 h away, and the corresponding hospital deaths/catchment population were 4.3/1000 and 2.0/1000, respectively. Children admitted from more than 3 h away were more likely to be male, had a longer pre-admission duration of illness and a shorter time between admission and death. Assuming uniform mortality in the catchment population, the predicted number of deaths not benefiting from hospital admission prior to death increased by 21.4% per hour of travel time to hospital. If the same admission and death rates that were found at <3 h from the hospital applied to the whole catchment population and if hospital care conferred a 30% survival benefit compared to home care, then 10.3% of childhood deaths due to febrile illness in the catchment population would have been averted. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality impact of poor access to hospital care in areas of high paediatric mortality is likely to be substantial although uncertainty over the mortality benefit of inpatient care is the largest constraint in making an accurate estimate.
目的:研究儿童死亡率与离最近医院的距离之间是否存在关联。
方法:本研究基于坦桑尼亚东北部一个地区医院发热儿科住院患者病因为期 1 年的研究数据。对所有纳入人群的村庄进行了地理位置定位,并根据当地交通状况估计了到达医院的时间。我们使用到达医院的旅行时间带,比较了在纳入人群中,使用住院死亡作为分子的入院率、住院患者病死率和儿童死亡率。
结果:纳入了 3111 名 5 岁以下的儿童,其中 4.6%死亡;2307 名来自距离医院<3 小时的地方,其中 3.4%死亡,804 名来自距离医院≥3 小时的地方,其中 8.0%死亡。入院率从距离医院<3 小时的 125/1000 下降到距离医院≥3 小时的 25/1000,相应的医院死亡/纳入人群分别为 4.3/1000 和 2.0/1000。距离医院超过 3 小时的儿童更可能是男性,患病前的潜伏期更长,从入院到死亡的时间更短。假设纳入人群的死亡率是均匀的,那么每增加 1 小时到达医院的旅行时间,预计未从入院中受益的死亡人数就会增加 21.4%。如果<3 小时内的入院率和死亡率适用于整个纳入人群,并且医院护理比家庭护理有 30%的生存获益,那么在纳入人群中,由于发热性疾病导致的儿童死亡中,有 10.3%是可以避免的。
结论:在儿科死亡率较高的地区,获得医院护理的机会较差对死亡率的影响可能是巨大的,尽管对住院护理的生存获益存在不确定性,这是做出准确估计的最大限制。
Trop Med Int Health. 2014-3-24
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