Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
BMC Public Health. 2010 Mar 17;10:142. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-10-142.
BACKGROUND: Policy-makers evaluating country progress towards the Millennium Development Goals also examine trends in health inequities. Distance to health facilities is a known determinant of health care utilization and may drive inequalities in health outcomes; we aimed to investigate its effects on childhood mortality. METHODS: The Epidemiological and Demographic Surveillance System in Kilifi District, Kenya, collects data on vital events and migrations in a population of 220,000 people. We used Geographic Information Systems to estimate pedestrian and vehicular travel times to hospitals and vaccine clinics and developed proportional-hazards models to evaluate the effects of travel time on mortality hazard in children less than 5 years of age, accounting for sex, ethnic group, maternal education, migrant status, rainfall and calendar time. RESULTS: In 2004-6, under-5 and under-1 mortality ratios were 65 and 46 per 1,000 live-births, respectively. Median pedestrian and vehicular travel times to hospital were 193 min (inter-quartile range: 125-267) and 49 min (32-72); analogous values for vaccine clinics were 47 (25-73) and 26 min (13-40). Infant and under-5 mortality varied two-fold across geographic locations, ranging from 34.5 to 61.9 per 1000 child-years and 8.8 to 18.1 per 1000, respectively. However, distance to health facilities was not associated with mortality. Hazard Ratios (HR) were 0.99 (95% CI 0.95-1.04) per hour and 1.01 (95% CI 0.95-1.08) per half-hour of pedestrian and vehicular travel to hospital, respectively, and 1.00 (95% CI 0.99-1.04) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.92-1.05) per quarter-hour of pedestrian and vehicular travel to vaccine clinics in children <5 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: Significant spatial variations in mortality were observed across the area, but were not correlated with distance to health facilities. We conclude that given the present density of health facilities in Kenya, geographic access to curative services does not influence population-level mortality.
背景:评估国家千年发展目标进展情况的政策制定者也会考察卫生公平性的变化趋势。到达卫生机构的距离是医疗保健利用的已知决定因素,可能会导致健康结果的不平等;我们旨在研究其对儿童死亡率的影响。
方法:肯尼亚基利菲区的流行病学和人口监测系统收集了 22 万人的生命事件和迁移数据。我们使用地理信息系统来估计到医院和疫苗接种诊所的行人及车辆行驶时间,并开发比例风险模型来评估行驶时间对 5 岁以下儿童死亡率风险的影响,同时考虑了性别、族群、母亲教育程度、移民身份、降雨量和日历时间。
结果:2004-2006 年,5 岁以下和 1 岁以下儿童的死亡率分别为每千例活产 65 和 46。到医院的行人及车辆行驶时间中位数分别为 193 分钟(四分位距:125-267)和 49 分钟(32-72);到疫苗接种诊所的相应时间分别为 47 分钟(25-73)和 26 分钟(13-40)。不同地理位置的婴儿和 5 岁以下儿童死亡率相差两倍,范围为每 1000 名儿童年 34.5 至 61.9 例和 8.8 至 18.1 例。然而,到达卫生机构的距离与死亡率无关。行人及车辆每小时行驶一小时的危险比(HR)分别为 0.99(95%CI 0.95-1.04)和 1.01(95%CI 0.95-1.08),到医院的行人及车辆每半小时行驶的危险比分别为 0.99(95%CI 0.95-1.04)和 1.01(95%CI 0.95-1.08),到疫苗接种诊所的行人及车辆每 15 分钟行驶的危险比分别为 0.97(95%CI 0.92-1.05)和 1.00(95%CI 0.99-1.04)。
结论:在该地区观察到死亡率存在显著的空间差异,但与到达卫生机构的距离无关。我们的结论是,考虑到肯尼亚目前的卫生设施密度,到治疗服务的地理可达性不会影响人口死亡率。
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