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牛群生产性能欠佳会加剧传染病在养牛业中的传播。

Suboptimal herd performance amplifies the spread of infectious disease in the cattle industry.

作者信息

Gates M Carolyn, Woolhouse Mark E J

机构信息

Epidemiology Group, Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2014 Mar 26;9(3):e93410. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0093410. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

Farms that purchase replacement breeding cattle are at increased risk of introducing many economically important diseases. The objectives of this analysis were to determine whether the total number of replacement breeding cattle purchased by individual farms could be reduced by improving herd performance and to quantify the effects of such reductions on the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases. Detailed information on the performance and contact patterns of British cattle herds was extracted from the national cattle movement database as a case example. Approximately 69% of beef herds and 59% of dairy herds with an average of at least 20 recorded calvings per year purchased at least one replacement breeding animal. Results from zero-inflated negative binomial regression models revealed that herds with high average ages at first calving, prolonged calving intervals, abnormally high or low culling rates, and high calf mortality rates were generally more likely to be open herds and to purchase greater numbers of replacement breeding cattle. If all herds achieved the same level of performance as the top 20% of herds, the total number of replacement beef and dairy cattle purchased could be reduced by an estimated 34% and 51%, respectively. Although these purchases accounted for only 13% of between-herd contacts in the industry trade network, they were found to have a disproportionately strong influence on disease transmission dynamics. These findings suggest that targeting extension services at herds with suboptimal performance may be an effective strategy for controlling endemic cattle diseases while simultaneously improving industry productivity.

摘要

购买后备繁殖母牛的农场引入许多具有重要经济意义疾病的风险会增加。本分析的目的是确定通过提高牛群性能是否可以减少个体农场购买的后备繁殖母牛总数,并量化此类减少对传染性牛病在行业层面传播动态的影响。作为案例,从国家牛只移动数据库中提取了有关英国牛群性能和接触模式的详细信息。每年平均至少有20次记录产犊的肉牛群中约69%以及奶牛群中约59%购买了至少一头后备繁殖动物。零膨胀负二项回归模型的结果显示,首次产犊平均年龄高、产犊间隔延长、淘汰率异常高或低以及犊牛死亡率高的牛群通常更有可能是开放牛群,并且购买更多的后备繁殖母牛。如果所有牛群都达到前20%牛群的相同性能水平,购买的后备肉牛和奶牛总数估计可分别减少34%和51%。尽管这些购买仅占行业贸易网络中牛群间接触的13%,但发现它们对疾病传播动态有不成比例的强大影响。这些发现表明,将推广服务目标对准性能欠佳的牛群可能是控制牛地方病同时提高行业生产力的有效策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7932/3966883/9245002881c6/pone.0093410.g001.jpg

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