Royal National Orthopaedic Hospital, Stanmore, Middlesex, HA7 4LP, UK.
Curr Rev Musculoskelet Med. 2014 Jun;7(2):168-71. doi: 10.1007/s12178-014-9208-0.
Matching the number of surgeons to the demands for orthopedic services has been notoriously difficult. Not only does one need to evaluate current trends in the supply and provision of services but anticipate the impact of future reforms on these variables. The British Orthopaedic Association has aspired to provide consultant to population ratio of 1:15,000 by 2020. Currently, the orthopedic community is tasked with providing care for an aging population with soaring levels of obesity; with both of these factors set to grow and also with an overall decline in productivity. Orthopedic surgeons must brace themselves for an explosion in demand. At the same time, a paradigm shift has occurred in the delivery of services with the creation of specialist centers. We are amidst a generational shift in the demographics and psychology of the orthopedic workforce. The orthopedic community must be aware of the effects of these far-reaching changes when tailoring the supply of surgeons for the future needs.
匹配外科医生的数量与骨科服务的需求一直是出了名的困难。不仅需要评估当前供应和服务提供的趋势，还要预测未来改革对这些变量的影响。英国骨科协会一直希望到 2020 年，将顾问与人口的比例达到 1:15000。目前，骨科界的任务是为老龄化人口提供护理，这些人肥胖率飙升；这两个因素都在增长，而整体生产力却在下降。骨科医生必须为需求的激增做好准备。与此同时，随着专科中心的建立，服务提供方式也发生了范式转变。我们正处于骨科劳动力人口统计学和心理学的代际转变之中。骨科界在为未来的需求调整外科医生的供应时，必须意识到这些深远变化的影响。
