State Plant Breeding Institute, University of Hohenheim, 70599, Stuttgart, Germany,
Theor Appl Genet. 2014 Jul;127(7):1635-41. doi: 10.1007/s00122-014-2325-8. Epub 2014 May 21.
The predicted future yield potential of hybrids was competitive with lines in the near future, but on a long term the competitiveness of hybrids depends on a number of factors. The change from line to hybrid breeding in autogamous crops is a recent controversial discussion among scientists and breeders. Our objectives were to employ wheat as a model to: (1) deliver a theoretical framework for the comparison of the selection gain of hybrid versus line breeding; (2) elaborate key parameters affecting selection gain in this comparison; (3) and evaluate the potential to modify these parameters in applied breeding programs. We developed a prediction model for future yield potential in both breeding methods as the sum of the population mean and the expected selection gain. The expected selection gain was smaller in hybrid than in line breeding and depended strongly on the hybrid seed production costs and the genetic variance available in hybrid versus line breeding. Owing to heterosis, the predicted future yield potential of hybrids was competitive with lines in the near future. On a long term, however, the competitiveness of hybrid compared to line breeding is questionable and depends on a number of factors. However, market specifications and political reasons might justify the current high interest in hybrid wheat breeding.
杂种的未来预测产量潜力与近期的品系相当，但从长远来看，杂种的竞争力取决于许多因素。自花授粉作物从品系向杂种的转变是科学家和育种者近期争议的一个话题。我们的目标是利用小麦作为模型：（1）提供一个理论框架，用于比较杂种与品系选育的选择增益；（2）详细阐述影响这种比较中选择增益的关键参数；（3）评估在实际育种计划中修改这些参数的潜力。我们为两种选育方法的未来产量潜力开发了一个预测模型，即群体均值和预期选择增益的总和。与品系选育相比，杂种选育的预期选择增益较小，而且强烈依赖于杂种种子生产成本和杂种与品系选育之间的遗传方差。由于杂种优势，杂种的未来预测产量潜力在近期与品系相当。然而，从长远来看，杂种与品系选育的竞争力是值得怀疑的，并且取决于许多因素。然而，市场规范和政治原因可能证明当前对杂交小麦育种的高度关注是合理的。
