International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), Nairobi, Kenya.
Int J Health Geogr. 2014 May 7;13:12. doi: 10.1186/1476-072X-13-12.
Predicting anopheles vectors' population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns.
We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km(2)).
Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios.
The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions. Therefore, the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures, which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios, remains crucial.
预测疟蚊种群密度和边界变化对于应对疟疾风险和突发疫情至关重要。尽管已经预测到非洲主要疟蚊（冈比亚按蚊和阿拉伯按蚊）的分布和边界发生了变化，但尚未确定其生存适宜区绝对变化的量化区域。在这项研究中，我们根据两项气候变化情景，针对每个非洲国家量化了有利于这些蚊种建立和生存的区域，并根据研究结果强调了在气候变化模式下有效控制疟疾的实际措施。
我们使用 CLIMEX 模拟平台开发了一个模型，以估算这些疟蚊与气候因素（温度、降雨量和相对湿度）相关的潜在地理分布和季节性丰度。该模型产生了一个生态气候指数（EI），用于描述物种的总适宜地理区域。EI 值进行了分类，并导出到 GIS 包中。使用 ArcGIS，将 EI 形状点裁剪到非洲的范围，然后使用反距离加权（IDW）插值方法将其转换为栅格层。生成的地图随后转换为基于多边形的地理参考数据集，并计算其面积并以平方公里（km²）表示。
得出了五个等级的 EI，表明这些疟蚊的生存能力水平。在东部和南部非洲国家，这些疟蚊的生存能力增加或减少的区域比例将比西部非洲国家更为明显。在所选的气候变化情景下，安哥拉、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、莫桑比克、坦桑尼亚、南非和赞比亚的疟蚊适宜区的绝对变化最有可能受到影响。
这些疟蚊的潜在变化对人类暴露于疟疾的风险产生了影响，因为这种疾病很可能在几个新的地区和区域重新出现。因此，制定、汇编和共享可以适应不同气候情景的疟疾预防措施仍然至关重要。
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