MacKenzie Cameron A
Risk Anal. 2014 Dec;34(12):2143-62. doi: 10.1111/risa.12220. Epub 2014 Jun 10.
Our society is fascinated with risk in many different areas and disciplines. One of the main ways to describe and communicate the level of risk is through risk indices, which summarize risk using numbers or categories such as words, letters, or colors. These indices are used to communicate risks to the public, understand how risk is changing over time, compare among different risks, and support decision making. Given the different methods to construct risk indices, including flawed methods such as risk matrices, this article develops specific steps that analysts can follow to create a risk index. This article emphasizes the importance of describing risk with a probability distribution, developing a numerical risk measure that summarizes the probability distribution, and finally translating the risk measure to an index. Measuring the risk is the most difficult part and requires the analyst to summarize a probability distribution into one or possibly a few numbers. The risk measure can then be transformed to a numerical or categorical index. I apply the method outlined in this article to construct a risk index that compares the risk of fatalities in aviation and highway transportation.
我们的社会在许多不同领域和学科中都对风险着迷。描述和传达风险水平的主要方法之一是通过风险指数，它使用数字或类别（如单词、字母或颜色）来总结风险。这些指数用于向公众传达风险、了解风险如何随时间变化、比较不同风险以及支持决策制定。鉴于构建风险指数的方法各不相同，包括有缺陷的方法（如风险矩阵），本文制定了分析师可以遵循的创建风险指数的具体步骤。本文强调用概率分布描述风险、开发一个总结概率分布的数值风险度量，以及最终将风险度量转化为指数的重要性。衡量风险是最困难的部分，需要分析师将概率分布总结为一个或可能几个数字。然后，风险度量可以转化为数值或分类指数。我应用本文概述的方法构建了一个风险指数，用于比较航空和公路运输中的死亡风险。
