Maxin Daniel, Berec Luděk, Bingham Adrienna, Molitor Denali, Pattyson Julie
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Valparaiso University, 1900 Chapel Drive, Valparaiso, IN , 46383, USA,
J Math Biol. 2015 May;70(6):1381-409. doi: 10.1007/s00285-014-0800-0. Epub 2014 Jun 15.
We analyze the effect of sterilization in the infected hosts in several epidemiological models involving infectious diseases that can be transmitted both vertically and horizontally. Sterilizing pathogens can be used as pest control agents by intentionally inoculating the target population, with the goal of reducing or eliminating it completely. Contrary to previous models that did not include vertical transmission we found that the population size at the endemic equilibrium may actually increase with higher levels of sterility. This effect is proved to exist for low to high efficiencies of vertical transmission. On the other hand, if the disease is sexually transmitted and the host reproduction and disease transmission are both consistently mediated by mating, we do not observe such a counter-intuitive effect and the population size in the stable endemic equilibrium is decreasing with higher levels of sterility. We suggest that models of the pest control techniques involving the release of sterilizing pathogens have to carefully consider the routes such pathogens use for transmission.
我们在几个涉及可垂直和水平传播的传染病的流行病学模型中，分析了在受感染宿主中进行绝育的效果。绝育病原体可通过有意接种目标种群用作害虫控制剂，目的是减少或完全消除它。与之前未包括垂直传播的模型相反，我们发现地方病平衡点处的种群规模实际上可能会随着绝育水平的提高而增加。这种效应在垂直传播效率从低到高的情况下都被证明是存在的。另一方面，如果疾病是性传播的，并且宿主繁殖和疾病传播都通过交配持续介导，我们不会观察到这种违反直觉的效应，并且稳定地方病平衡点处的种群规模会随着绝育水平的提高而减小。我们建议，涉及释放绝育病原体的害虫控制技术模型必须仔细考虑这些病原体的传播途径。
