Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, 250012, PR China; Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan City, Shandong Province, 250012, PR China.
Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical College, Taian City, Shandong Province, 271016, PR China.
J Infect. 2014 Nov;69(5):430-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2014.05.016. Epub 2014 Jun 20.
Zhengzhou, Kaifeng and Xinxiang, the cities in the north central region of Henan Province, suffered from many times floods from 2004 to 2009. We focused on dysentery disease consequences of floods and examined the association between floods and the morbidity of dysentery, based on a longitudinal data.
A generalized additive mixed model was conducted to examine the relationship between the monthly morbidity of dysentery and floods from 2004 to 2009 in the study areas. The relative risks (RRs) of the floods risk on the morbidity of dysentery were estimated in each city and the whole region.
The RRs on dysentery were 11.47 (95% CI: 8.67-15.33), 1.35 (95% CI: 1.23-3.90) and 2.75 (95% CI: 1.36-4.85) in Kaifeng, Xinxiang and Zhengzhou, respectively. The RR on dysentery in the whole region was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.52-1.82).
Our study confirms that flooding has significantly increased the risk of dysentery in the study areas. Additionally, we observed that a sudden and severe flooding can contribute more risk to the morbidity of dysentery than a persistent and moderate flooding. Our findings have significant implications for developing strategies to prevent and reduce health impact of floods.
河南省中北部的郑州市、开封市和新乡市在 2004 年至 2009 年期间多次遭受洪水侵袭。我们重点研究了洪水对痢疾的影响，并基于纵向数据，考察了洪水与痢疾发病率之间的关系。
采用广义加性混合模型，考察了研究地区 2004 年至 2009 年每月痢疾发病率与洪水之间的关系。分别估计了各城市和整个地区洪水对痢疾发病率的相对风险（RR）。
在开封、新乡和郑州，痢疾的 RR 分别为 11.47（95%CI：8.67-15.33）、1.35（95%CI：1.23-3.90）和 2.75（95%CI：1.36-4.85）。整个地区痢疾的 RR 为 1.66（95%CI：1.52-1.82）。
本研究证实，洪水显著增加了研究地区痢疾的发病风险。此外，我们发现，突发且严重的洪水对痢疾发病率的影响比持续且中度的洪水更大。我们的研究结果对制定预防和减少洪水对健康影响的策略具有重要意义。
