Liu Zhidong, Ding Guoyong, Zhang Ying, Xu Xin, Liu Qiyong, Jiang Baofa
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical College, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; School of Public Health, China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; School of Population Health, Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical College, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; School of Public Health, China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; School of Population Health, Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China; State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, People's Republic of China
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2015 Nov;93(5):925-30. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.14-0825. Epub 2015 Sep 28.
This study aimed to examine the association between floods and the morbidity of dysentery and to quantify the burden of dysentery due to floods in Nanning, China. A generalized additive mixed model was conducted to assess the relationship between monthly morbidity of dysentery and floods from 2004 to 2010. The years lived with disability (YLDs) of dysentery attributable to floods were then estimated based on the WHO framework of the burden of disease study for calculating the potential impact fraction. The relative risk (RR) of floods on the morbidity of dysentery was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18-1.75). The models suggest that a potential 1-day rise in flood duration may lead to 8% (RR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04-1.12) increase in the morbidity of dysentery. The average attributable YLD per 1,000 of dysentery caused by floods were 0.013 in males, 0.005 in females, and 0.009 in persons. Our study confirms that floods have significantly increased the risk and the burden of dysentery in the study area. Public health action should be taken to prevent and control the potential risk of dysentery after floods. Vulnerable groups such as males and children should be paid more attention.
本研究旨在探讨洪水与痢疾发病率之间的关联，并量化中国南宁市因洪水导致的痢疾负担。采用广义相加混合模型评估2004年至2010年痢疾月发病率与洪水之间的关系。然后根据世界卫生组织疾病负担研究框架计算潜在影响分数，估算洪水导致的痢疾伤残调整生命年（YLDs）。洪水对痢疾发病率的相对风险（RR）为1.44（95%置信区间[CI]=1.18 - 1.75）。模型表明，洪水持续时间每潜在增加1天，可能导致痢疾发病率增加8%（RR = 1.08，95%CI = 1.04 - 1.12）。每1000例因洪水导致的痢疾，男性的平均归因YLD为0.013，女性为0.005，总体为0.009。我们的研究证实，洪水显著增加了研究区域内痢疾的风险和负担。应采取公共卫生行动预防和控制洪水后痢疾的潜在风险。男性和儿童等弱势群体应得到更多关注。
