Shen Ke, Zeng Yi
Institute of Population Research, School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China.
Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development and Geriatric Division of Medical School, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA; Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
Soc Sci Med. 2014 Oct;119:207-14. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.07.003. Epub 2014 Jul 3.
This paper investigates whether childhood conditions affect survival and health, both directly and indirectly through the mediating variable of adulthood socioeconomic status, among Chinese elderly. Using data from the 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, we apply structural equation models to estimate these effects. We find that favorable childhood conditions exert a negative direct impact on survival probability at senior ages, possibly resulting from mortality selection. Our results also support the pathways model, which indicates that advantageous childhood conditions improve socioeconomic status in adulthood and thus indirectly promote longevity and health at advanced ages. Combining the direct and indirect effects, the total effects of childhood advantages on survival and health are positive. We further demonstrate that direct and indirect effects of childhood conditions are stronger for women than they are for men. Our findings suggest that public policies that target childhood wellbeing may have far-reaching protective impacts on health among seniors.
本文研究在中国老年人中，童年状况是否会直接或通过成年期社会经济地位这一中介变量间接影响生存和健康。利用中国健康与养老追踪调查2008 - 2009年以及2011 - 2012年两轮的数据，我们应用结构方程模型来估计这些影响。我们发现，良好的童年状况对高龄者的生存概率有负面直接影响，这可能是由死亡选择导致的。我们的结果也支持路径模型，该模型表明，优越的童年状况会提高成年期的社会经济地位，从而间接促进高龄时的长寿和健康。综合直接和间接影响，童年优势对生存和健康的总体影响是积极的。我们进一步证明，童年状况的直接和间接影响对女性的作用比对男性更强。我们的研究结果表明，针对儿童福祉的公共政策可能会对老年人的健康产生深远的保护作用。
