Estay Sergio A, Labra Fabio A, Sepulveda Roger D, Bacigalupe Leonardo D
Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile.
Centro de Investigación e Innovación para el Cambio Climático, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Santo Tomas, Santiago, Chile.
PLoS One. 2014 Jul 14;9(7):e102592. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0102592. eCollection 2014.
Pine sawyer beetle species of the genus Monochamus are vectors of the nematode pest Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The introduction of these species into new habitats is a constant threat for those regions where the forestry industry depends on conifers, and especially on species of Pinus. To obtain information about the potential risk of establishment of these insects in Chile, we performed climate-based niche modeling using data for five North American and four Eurasian Monochamus species using a Maxent approach. The most important variables that account for current distribution of these species are total annual precipitation and annual and seasonal average temperatures, with some differences between North American and Eurasian species. Projections of potential geographic distribution in Chile show that all species could occupy at least 37% of the area between 30° and 53°S, where industrial plantations of P. radiata are concentrated. Our results indicated that Chile seems more suitable for Eurasian than for North American species.
墨天牛属的松墨天牛是线虫害虫松材线虫的传播媒介。将这些物种引入新栖息地，对那些林业依赖针叶树，尤其是松树物种的地区来说，始终是一种威胁。为了获取有关这些昆虫在智利定殖的潜在风险的信息，我们使用最大熵模型（Maxent）方法，利用五个北美墨天牛物种和四个欧亚墨天牛物种的数据，进行了基于气候的生态位建模。解释这些物种当前分布的最重要变量是年总降水量以及年平均温度和季节平均温度，北美物种和欧亚物种之间存在一些差异。智利潜在地理分布的预测表明，所有物种至少可以占据南纬30°至53°之间37%的区域，这里是辐射松人工林的集中地。我们的结果表明，智利似乎对欧亚物种比对北美物种更适宜。
