Garip Filiz, Curran Sara
Department of Sociology, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA.
Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies and Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2010 Oct 1;29(5):659-685. doi: 10.1007/s11113-009-9165-2.
This paper studies how increasing migration changes the character of migrant streams in sending communities. Cumulative causation theory posits that past migration patterns determine future flows, as prior migrants provide resources, influence, or normative pressures that make individuals more likely to migrate. The theory implies exponentially increasing migration flows that are decreasingly selective. Recent research identifies heterogeneity in the cumulative patterns and selectivity of migration in communities. We propose that this heterogeneity may be explained by individuals' differential access to previously accumulated migration experience. Multi-level, longitudinal data from 22 rural Thai communities allow us to measure the distribution of past experience as a proxy for its accessibility to community members. We find that migration becomes a less-selective process as migration experience accumulates, and migrants become increasingly diverse in socio-demographic characteristics. Yet, selectivity within migrant streams persists if migration experience is not uniformly distributed among, and hence not equally accessible to, all community members. The results confirm that the accumulation and distribution of prior migrants' experiences distinctly shape future migration flows, and may lead to diverging cumulative patterns in communities over time.
本文研究了移民增加如何改变输出社区移民流的特征。累积因果理论认为，过去的移民模式决定未来的流动，因为先前的移民提供资源、影响或规范压力，使个人更有可能移民。该理论意味着移民流呈指数增长且选择性降低。最近的研究发现了社区中移民累积模式和选择性的异质性。我们认为这种异质性可能是由于个人获得先前积累的移民经验的机会不同。来自泰国22个农村社区的多层次纵向数据使我们能够测量过去经验的分布，以此作为其对社区成员可及性的代理指标。我们发现，随着移民经验的积累，移民过程的选择性降低，移民在社会人口特征上变得越来越多样化。然而，如果移民经验在所有社区成员中分布不均且因此并非对所有人都同样可及，那么移民流中的选择性仍然存在。结果证实，先前移民经验的积累和分布明显塑造了未来的移民流，并可能导致社区随时间推移出现不同的累积模式。
