Fussell Elizabeth, Massey Douglas S
Sociology Department, Tulane University, 220 Newcomb Hall, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.
Demography. 2004 Feb;41(1):151-71. doi: 10.1353/dem.2004.0003.
We present theoretical arguments and empirical research to suggest that the principal mechanisms of cumulative causation do not function in large urban settings. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, we found evidence of cumulative causation in small cities, rural towns and villages, but not in large urban areas. With event-history models, we found little positive effect of community-level social capital and a strong deterrent effect of urban labor markets on the likelihood of first and later U.S. trips for residents of urban areas in Mexico, suggesting that the social process of migration from urban areas is distinct from that in the more widely studied rural migrant-sending communities of Mexico.
我们提出理论观点和实证研究，以表明累积因果关系的主要机制在大型城市环境中不起作用。利用墨西哥移民项目的数据，我们发现了小城市、乡村小镇和村庄中存在累积因果关系的证据，但在大城市地区却没有。通过事件史模型，我们发现社区层面的社会资本对墨西哥城市地区居民首次及后续前往美国的可能性几乎没有积极影响，而城市劳动力市场则有很强的抑制作用，这表明城市地区的移民社会过程与墨西哥更广泛研究的农村移民输出社区不同。
