Colorectal cancer mortality in Brazil: predictions until the year 2025 and cancer control implications.

BACKGROUND

Although data exist on the number of deaths by colorectal cancer in Brazil, there is no information detailed by geographic regions and age groups regarding the future impact of this disease.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to carry out predictions for colorectal cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions until the year 2025.

DESIGN

This was an ecological study.

SETTINGS

The study was conducted in the geographic regions of Brazil.

PATIENTS

Data were obtained from the Brazilian Health Ministry and from population-based data of the Brazilian Statistics and Geography Institute.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures were the predictions of the number of deaths and mortality rates for 2011-2025 based on the mortality incidence of colorectal cancer during 1996-2010.

RESULTS

Significant increases were verified in Brazilian rates between 1996 and 2006, followed by stable rates until 2010. For men, predictions indicate increasing rates both at a national level and by geographic regions, except for the South region (where a decrease is expected). In women, increasing rates are expected for the overall country and for the North, Northeast, and Central West regions, whereas decreasing rates are expected for the Southeast and South regions. At a national level, the predicted increase in deaths by colorectal cancer is 75.8% in men and 67.5% in women: 55.8% and 60.6% can be attributed to population changes and 20.0% and 7.0% because of risk increases.

LIMITATIONS

It is highlighted that the observational period for projections is short, at 15 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing mortality rates for colorectal cancer are expected in Brazil until the year 2025, mostly because of the aging process of the population. The results presented herein show that the disease burden will be higher in the North, Northeast, and Central West regions of the country, which also correspond with the least developed regions.