巴西喉癌死亡率的地区和性别差异：至2030年的趋势与预测
Regional and gender differences in laryngeal cancer mortality: trends and predictions until 2030 in Brazil.
作者信息
Dantas de Oliveira Nayara Priscila, Barbosa Isabelle Ribeiro, Vieria Paulino Jéssica Nayara, de Camargo Cancela Marianna, Bezerra de Souza Dyego Leandro
机构信息
Public Health Department, Graduate Program in Public Health, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal-RN, Brazil.
Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal-RN, Brazil.
出版信息
Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol. 2016 Nov;122(5):547-554. doi: 10.1016/j.oooo.2016.06.014. Epub 2016 Jun 29.
OBJECTIVE
Analysis of laryngeal cancer mortality trends in Brazil and its geographic regions for the period 1996-2010 and calculation of mortality predictions for the period 2011-2030.
STUDY DESIGN
An epidemiologic, ecologic, demographic-based study, which utilized information from the Mortality Information System on all cancer-related deaths in Brazil, is presented here. Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, and Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions.
RESULTS
When comparing the last observed period and the last predicted period for men, an increase of 10,588 deaths is expected, representing an increase of 69%. For women, the expected increase in the number of deaths will be 2217, representing an increase of 104%. Laryngeal cancer mortality rates will increase in the North and Northeast regions for men and in the Northeast and Southeast regions for women.
CONCLUSIONS
Despite the current high mortality for laryngeal cancer, rates will continue to increase until 2030 in Brazil.
目的
分析1996 - 2010年巴西及其地理区域的喉癌死亡率趋势，并计算2011 - 2030年的死亡率预测值。
研究设计
本文呈现了一项基于流行病学、生态学和人口统计学的研究，该研究利用了巴西死亡信息系统中所有癌症相关死亡的信息。通过Joinpoint回归分析死亡率趋势，并使用Nordpred计算预测值。
结果
比较男性最后一个观察期和最后一个预测期，预计死亡人数将增加10588人，增幅为69%。对于女性，预计死亡人数将增加2217人，增幅为104%。男性喉癌死亡率在北部和东北部地区将上升，女性在东北部和东南部地区将上升。
结论
尽管目前喉癌死亡率很高，但到2030年巴西的喉癌死亡率仍将继续上升。
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