巴西胃癌死亡率的趋势与预测。
Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil.
作者信息
de Souza Giusti Angela Carolina Brandão, de Oliveira Salvador Pétala Tuani Candido, Dos Santos Juliano, Meira Karina Cardoso, Camacho Amanda Rodrigues, Guimarães Raphael Mendonça, Souza Dyego L B
机构信息
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Natal 59010-000, Brazil.
出版信息
World J Gastroenterol. 2016 Jul 28;22(28):6527-38. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v22.i28.6527.
AIM
To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029.
METHODS
An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R.
RESULTS
Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980's, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000's, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates.
CONCLUSION
Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates.
目的
分析年龄-时期和出生队列对巴西及其五个地理区域20岁以上人群胃癌死亡率的影响，按性别进行分析，并对2010 - 2029年期间进行预测。
方法
本文进行了一项生态学研究，该研究对巴西及其地理区域内与胃癌相关的死亡情况进行了分布分析。通过泊松回归模型计算年龄-时期和出生队列的影响，并在统计软件R中使用年龄-时期-队列模型进行预测。
结果
在20世纪80年代观察到死亡率逐步下降，然后在21世纪，巴西以及南部、东南部和中西部地区的男女死亡率均出现了高低波动。在1995 - 1999年期间，东北部（男女）和北部（仅男性）地区的死亡率逐渐下降，随后上升。
结论
巴西胃癌死亡率存在区域差异，该国最不发达地区的预计死亡率将会上升。
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