巴西食管癌死亡率的不平等:时间趋势和预测。
Inequalities in esophageal cancer mortality in Brazil: Temporal trends and projections.
机构信息
National Cancer Institute, Cancer Hospital III, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Health School, Natal, Brazil.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2018 Mar 19;13(3):e0193135. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0193135. eCollection 2018.
The main objective of the study was to analyze the effect of age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions, per sex. An ecological study is presented herein, which evaluated the deaths by esophageal cancer and the distribution, per geographic region. Poisson Regression was utilized to calculate the effects of age, period and birth cohort, and projections were made with the statistical software R, using the age-period-cohort model. Projection of data covered the period 2015-2029. Regarding the geographic regions of Brazil, a decrease was verified, throughout time, for the mortality rates of the South and Southeast regions, for men and women. For the North, Northeast and Midwest regions, an increase was evidenced in mortality rates, mainly for men, after the 2000's. Regarding the projections, a progressive increase of mortality rates was verified for the Northeast and North regions. Divergences evidenced for observed and projected esophageal cancer mortality rates revealed inequalities among the geographic regions of Brazil.
本研究的主要目的是分析年龄、时期和出生队列对巴西及其地理区域男女食管癌死亡率的影响。本研究采用生态学研究方法,评估了按地理区域分布的食管癌死亡情况。利用泊松回归计算年龄、时期和出生队列的影响,并使用统计软件 R 中的年龄-时期-队列模型进行预测。数据预测涵盖了 2015 年至 2029 年期间。就巴西的地理区域而言,男性和女性的南、东南部地区的死亡率呈下降趋势。对于北部、东北部和中西部地区,主要是男性,21 世纪后死亡率呈上升趋势。就预测而言,东北地区和北部地区的死亡率呈逐渐上升趋势。观察到的和预测的食管癌死亡率之间的差异表明巴西地理区域之间存在不平等现象。
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