Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL , 33124-4250, USA.
Bull Math Biol. 2014 Aug;76(8):2052-72. doi: 10.1007/s11538-014-9998-7. Epub 2014 Aug 8.
We propose a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus among ruminants. Our findings indicate that in endemic areas RVF virus maintains at a very low level among ruminants after outbreaks and subsequent outbreaks may occur when new susceptible ruminants are recruited into endemic areas or abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge when herd immunity decreases. Many factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks; a higher probability of death due to RVF among ruminants, a higher mosquito:ruminant ratio, or a shorter lifespan of animals can amplify the magnitude of the outbreaks; vaccination helps to reduce the magnitude of RVF outbreaks and the loss of animals efficiently, and the maximum vaccination effort (a high vaccination rate and a larger number of vaccinated animals) is recommended before the commencement of an outbreak but can be reduced later during the enzootic.
我们提出了一个数学模型来研究裂谷热（RVF）病毒在反刍动物中的传播动态。我们的研究结果表明，在流行地区，RVF 病毒在爆发后会在反刍动物中保持非常低的水平，而当新的易感反刍动物被招募到流行地区或当群体免疫力下降时大量蚊子出现时，可能会发生随后的爆发。许多因素已被证明对 RVF 爆发的严重程度有影响；反刍动物因 RVF 而死亡的概率较高、蚊子与反刍动物的比例较高，或动物的寿命较短，都可能放大爆发的规模；疫苗接种有助于有效减少 RVF 爆发的规模和动物的损失，建议在爆发前达到最大疫苗接种力度（高接种率和更多接种动物），但在流行期间可以减少。
