Raninen Jonas, Livingston Michael, Leifman Håkan
CAN (Swedish Council for Information on Alcohol and Other Drugs), Stockholm, Sweden Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
Drug Policy Modelling Program, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia Centre for Alcohol Policy Research, Turning Point Alcohol and Drug Centre, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia.
Alcohol Alcohol. 2014 Nov;49(6):681-6. doi: 10.1093/alcalc/agu045. Epub 2014 Aug 11.
To analyse trends in alcohol consumption among young people in Sweden between 2004 and 2012, to test whether the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures is valid for a population of young people and to investigate the impact of an increasing proportion of abstainers on the overall per capita trends.
Data were drawn from an annual survey of a nationally representative sample of students in year 11 (17-18 years old). The data covered 9 years and the total sample comprised 36,141 students. Changes in the overall per capita consumption were tested using linear regression on log-transformed data, and changes in abstention rates were tested using logistic regression. The analyses were then continued by calculating average consumption in deciles.
Alcohol consumption among year 11 students declined significantly among both boys and girls between 2004 and 2012. These changes were reflected at all levels of consumption, and the same results were found when abstainers were excluded from the analyses. The increasing proportion of abstainers had a minimal effect on the overall decline in consumption; rather, this was driven by a decline in consumption among the heaviest drinkers.
The theory of collectivity of drinking cultures seems valid for understanding changes in alcohol consumption among Swedish year 11 students. No support was found for a polarization of alcohol consumption in this nationally representative sample.
分析2004年至2012年瑞典年轻人的酒精消费趋势，检验饮酒文化集体性理论对年轻人群体是否有效，并调查戒酒者比例增加对总体人均趋势的影响。
数据取自对11年级（17 - 18岁）具有全国代表性的学生样本的年度调查。数据涵盖9年，总样本包括36141名学生。使用对数转换数据的线性回归检验总体人均消费的变化，使用逻辑回归检验戒酒率的变化。然后通过计算十分位数的平均消费量继续进行分析。
2004年至2012年期间，11年级学生中，男孩和女孩的酒精消费量均显著下降。这些变化在所有消费水平上都有体现，并且在分析中排除戒酒者时也得到了相同的结果。戒酒者比例的增加对消费的总体下降影响极小；相反，这是由饮酒最多者的消费量下降所驱动的。
饮酒文化集体性理论似乎对于理解瑞典11年级学生的酒精消费变化是有效的。在这个具有全国代表性的样本中，未发现酒精消费两极分化的证据。
