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北极圈以上的气候变暖:1951年至2012年期间俄罗斯摩尔曼斯克地区热量生长季的时间和长度是否存在变化趋势?

Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012?

作者信息

Blinova Ilona, Chmielewski Frank-Michael

机构信息

Polar-Alpine Botanical Garden-Institute, 184230, Kirovsk, Murmansk Region, Russia,

出版信息

Int J Biometeorol. 2015 Jun;59(6):693-705. doi: 10.1007/s00484-014-0880-y. Epub 2014 Aug 27.

Abstract

Anomalies in the timing of the thermal growing season have become obvious in the NE part of Fennoscandia since 2000. They are in accordance with climatic changes reported for Europe and Fennoscandia. The actual length of the growing season reached 120 days on average, onset on 30 May and ending on 27 September (1981-2010). Shifts in the timing of the growing season and its mean prolongation by 18.5 days/62a are demonstrated for Murmansk Region (1951-2012). In this period, the onset of the growing season advanced by 7.1 days/62a, while the end was extended by 11.4 days/62a. The delay in the end of the growing season is similar to the entire Fennoscandian pattern but it has not been detected in the rest of Europe. The regional pattern of climatic regimes in Murmansk Region remained stable in comparison with earlier climatic maps (1971). However, the actual shifts in the timing of the growing season were more pronounced in colder (oceanic and mountainous) parts. Recent climatic trends could influence the retreat of the tundra zone and changes in the forest line. Losses of tundra biodiversity and enrichment of the northern taiga by southern species could be expected from present climatic trends.

摘要

自2000年以来,芬诺斯堪的亚东北部地区热生长季的时间异常现象已变得十分明显。这些异常现象与欧洲和芬诺斯堪的亚地区所报道的气候变化情况相符。生长季的实际平均长度为120天,于5月30日开始,9月27日结束(1981 - 2010年)。摩尔曼斯克地区(1951 - 2012年)显示出生长季时间的变化及其平均延长了18.5天/62年。在此期间,生长季开始时间提前了7.1天/62年,而结束时间延长了11.4天/62年。生长季结束时间的延迟与整个芬诺斯堪的亚地区的模式相似,但在欧洲其他地区尚未发现这种情况。与早期气候图(1971年)相比,摩尔曼斯克地区的气候状况区域模式保持稳定。然而,生长季时间的实际变化在较寒冷的(海洋性和山区)地区更为明显。近期的气候趋势可能会影响苔原带的退缩和森林线的变化。根据目前的气候趋势,预计苔原生物多样性会减少,而北方泰加林会有南方物种迁入并变得更加丰富。

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