Wypych Agnieszka, Sulikowska Agnieszka, Ustrnul Zbigniew, Czekierda Danuta
Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland.
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute, Kraków, Poland.
Int J Biometeorol. 2017 Jan;61(1):49-59. doi: 10.1007/s00484-016-1190-3. Epub 2016 May 24.
An observed increase in air temperature can lead to significant changes in the phenology of plants and, consequently, changes in agricultural production. The aim of the study was to evaluate the spatial differentiation of thermal resources in Poland and their variability during a period of changing thermal conditions in Europe. Since the variability of thermal conditions is of paramount importance for perennial crops, the study focused on apple, plum, and cherry orchard regions in Poland. The analysis was conducted for the period of 1951-2010 using air temperature daily data. Thermal resources have been defined using the growing degree days (GDD) index calculated independently for the whole year and during in frost-free season for three air temperature thresholds: 0, 5, and 10 °C, which determine the non-winter period, growing season, and the period of full plant growth, respectively. In addition, due to the high significance for perennials in particular, the incidence and intensity of frost during flowering were calculated. In this study, a detailed analysis of the spatial differentiation of thermal resources was first performed, followed by an evaluation of long-term variability and associated change patterns. The obtained results confirmed an increase in thermal resources in Poland as a consequence of the lengthening of the growing season. However, the frequency and intensity of spring frost, especially during flowering or even during ripening of plants, remain a threat to harvests in both the eastern and western parts of the country.
观测到的气温升高会导致植物物候发生显著变化，进而影响农业生产。本研究旨在评估波兰热资源的空间差异及其在欧洲热条件变化时期的变异性。由于热条件的变异性对多年生作物至关重要，因此该研究聚焦于波兰的苹果、李子和樱桃果园地区。分析使用了1951 - 2010年期间的每日气温数据。热资源通过生长度日（GDD）指数来定义，该指数分别针对全年以及无霜期，根据三个气温阈值（0、5和10°C）独立计算得出，这三个阈值分别确定了非冬季时期、生长季节以及植物完全生长的时期。此外，由于对多年生植物尤为重要，还计算了开花期霜冻的发生率和强度。在本研究中，首先对热资源的空间差异进行了详细分析，随后评估了长期变异性及相关变化模式。所得结果证实，由于生长季节延长，波兰的热资源有所增加。然而，春季霜冻的频率和强度，尤其是在植物开花甚至成熟期间，仍然对该国东部和西部的收成构成威胁。
