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贝叶斯设计与频率论特征的控制:一种实用解决方案。

Bayesian designs and the control of frequentist characteristics: a practical solution.

作者信息

Ventz Steffen, Trippa Lorenzo

机构信息

Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Department of Biostatistics Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, 02115, U.S.A.

出版信息

Biometrics. 2015 Mar;71(1):218-226. doi: 10.1111/biom.12226. Epub 2014 Sep 5.

Abstract

Frequentist concepts, such as the control of the type I error or the false discovery rate, are well established in the medical literature and often required by regulators. Most Bayesian designs are defined without explicit considerations of frequentist characteristics. Once the Bayesian design is structured, statisticians use simulations and adjust tuning parameters to comply with a set of targeted operating characteristics. These adjustments affect the use of prior information and utility functions. Here we consider a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for experimental designs with explicit frequentist requisites. We define optimal designs under a set of constraints required by a regulator. Our approach combines the use of interpretable utility functions with frequentist criteria, and selects an optimal design that satisfies a set of required operating characteristics. We illustrate the approach using a group-sequential multi-arm Phase II trial and a bridging trial.

摘要

频率论概念,如对I型错误或错误发现率的控制,在医学文献中已得到充分确立,并且监管机构常常要求使用。大多数贝叶斯设计在定义时并未明确考虑频率论特征。一旦构建好贝叶斯设计,统计学家会使用模拟并调整调优参数,以符合一组目标操作特征。这些调整会影响先验信息和效用函数的使用。在此,我们考虑一种具有明确频率论要求的实验设计的贝叶斯决策理论方法。我们在监管机构要求的一组约束条件下定义最优设计。我们的方法将可解释的效用函数的使用与频率论标准相结合,并选择一个满足一组所需操作特征的最优设计。我们通过一个成组序贯多臂II期试验和一个桥接试验来说明该方法。

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