Pigott David M, Golding Nick, Mylne Adrian, Huang Zhi, Henry Andrew J, Weiss Daniel J, Brady Oliver J, Kraemer Moritz U G, Smith David L, Moyes Catherine L, Bhatt Samir, Gething Peter W, Horby Peter W, Bogoch Isaac I, Brownstein John S, Mekaru Sumiko R, Tatem Andrew J, Khan Kamran, Hay Simon I
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Epidemic Diseases Research Group, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Elife. 2014 Sep 8;3:e04395. doi: 10.7554/eLife.04395.
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.
埃博拉病毒病（EVD）是一种复杂的人畜共患病，对人类具有高度致病性。有记录以来最大规模的埃博拉病毒病疫情正在西非持续蔓延，超出了此前报告和预测的疫源地范围。我们收集了1976年至2014年期间所有记录在案的蝙蝠和灵长类动物向人类的人畜共患传播以及埃博拉病毒感染的地点数据。利用物种分布模型，将这些出现数据与环境协变量配对，以预测覆盖中非和西非22个国家的人畜共患传播疫源地。植被、海拔、温度、蒸散量以及疑似宿主蝙蝠的分布确定了这种关系。高危地区居住着2200万人；然而，人类疫情的罕见性凸显了病毒传播给人类的极低概率。自1976年首次发现埃博拉病毒病以来，人口规模不断增加以及航空国际连通性增强，这表明当代疫情中人际二次传播的动态将与过去大不相同。
